Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2015

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

  • The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges.

  • There was no rainfall received within the month of March.

  • The vegetation conditions are gradually worsening with the overall county VCI of 25.09 falling far below the normal ranges of 35-50. Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 30.9 and 28 which is a larger reduction compared to last month. The situation is far below normal in Bura (with a VCI of 25.09) sub-county indicating severe drought on a worsening trend compared to last month.

  • SPI for February shows unusual fluctuations from normal range throughout the county.

  • Currently State of water sources is at the range of ‘3’ in the county.
    This is still below normal range of ‘5’ and the situation might worsen with the progressing of short dry spell.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

  • There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the ongoing short dry spell, massive migrations of livestock moving towards the fall back grazing areas of Tana Delta is expected if long rains fail to perform well.

  • Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is fair within mixed livelihood zones but at Borderline in both Pastoral and Marginal mixed.
    Some livelihood zones are showing signs of stress (12th and 13th ribs visible).

Utilization indicators

The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk remains Stable at 11% of the previous month of February to 11% in the month of March. The stable status of the nutritional status of children under the age of 5 Years is attributed to ongoing interventions during this dry spell period.
Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year.