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Kenya

Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for July 2022

Attachments

Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Drought Phase: ALERT-WORSENNING

Biophysical Indicators
• Biophysical indicators are showing negative trends away from expected seasonal ranges.
• No rainfall were received in the month of July 2022.
• The July Vegetation Condition Index values for Tana North-Bura, Galole and Tana Delta sub-county are below normal and on declining trend for the county by 30th July 2022.
• The Water levels in most water pans were declining below normal at 3(35%-40%) across all livelihood zones.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators:
• The forage condition is poor in pastoral and marginal mixed but fair to good in mixed farming livelihoods in both quality and quantity
• Livestock body condition is normal in mixed but Stressed in marginal mixed and pastoral livelihood zones.
• Milk production is below average in Pastoral and marginal mixed livelihood zones. This is attributed to depleted forage and pasture conditions.
• Increased Livestock migrations towards the fall back grazing fields have been observed during the month.

Access indicators
• Terms of trade on declining trend. Attributed to decreasing prices of goat and increasing cereal prices due to market dynamics.
• Distances to water sources for households currently on a increasing trend and below averages compared to normal.

Utilization indicators:
• The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition currently on the increase compared to previous month.
• Copping strategy index for households is on increasing trend due high food prices and lack of enough food at household level.