Tana River County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for January 2021

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Drought Phase:Normal-WORSENING

Biophysical Indicators

• Biophysical indicators are showing negative trends away from the expected seasonal ranges.

• Below average amount of rainfall were received in the month of January 2021.

• The January Vegetation Condition Index values for Tana North-Bura sub-county are below normal and indicating moderate drought.

• The Water levels in most water pans were below normal at 3(25%-65%) in Pastoral and Marginal mixed livelihood zones.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators:

• The forage condition is fair to poor in pastoral but fair to good in mixed livelihoods in both quality and quantity.

• Livestock body condition is good in mixed and fair to good in marginal mixed and pastoral livelihood zones.

• Milk production remained stable at 4.0 litres across the livelihood zones. This is attributed to fair forage and pasture conditions.

• Livestock migrations were reported towards the fall back grazing fields.

Access indicators

• Terms of trade are currently above normal range.

• Distances to water sources for households currently stable compared to normal.

Utilization indicators:

• The number of under-fives at risk of malnutrition stood at 16.8%, which is above normal at this time of the year.

• Copping strategy index for households is within normal ranges but on a worsening trend.