Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification
The biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside the expected seasonal ranges.
There was hardly any rainfall received within the month of January.
The vegetation conditions are gradually improved with the overall county VCI of 44.27 falling within the normal ranges of 35-50. Galole and Garsen recorded a VCI of 52 and 50 which are above normal . The situation is below normal in Bura(with a VCI of 31) sub-county indicating moderate drought. This has worsen compaired to last month.
SPI is ‘-0.28’ which is within normal range throughout the county.
Currently State of water sources is at the range of ‘3-4’ in the county.
This is still below normal range of ‘>=5’ and the situation might worsen with the onset of short dry spell.
Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)
There are no unusual livestock migration patterns noted in the county, however with the onset of short dry spell, massive migrations of livestock moving towards the fall back grazing areas of Tana Delta is expected which are normal at this time of the year.
Livestock body condition for cattle, goats and sheep is good within Mixed livelihood zones but fair in both Pastoral and Marginal mixed. Some livelihood zones have started showing signs of stress(12th and 13th ribs visible).
The malnutrition status of children under the age of 5 years that are at risk worsened from 10.4% of the previous month of December to 10.9% in the month of January. The worsening of the nutritional status of children under the age of 5 years is attributed to Onset of dry spell. Compared to long term averages, the current percentage is below normal at this time of the year.