The 2015 Short Rains (October – December) are likely to be enhanced in most parts of the country with varied levels of impacts in the socio-economic sectors. In some parts of the rains are expected to continue into early 2016. The distribution is also expected to be good both in time and space. While the heavy rains may cause disruptions, some sectors may reap maximum benefits from the expected good rains depending on their levels of preparedness.
El Niño conditions are currently present in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (the Niño areas). Rainfall performance of the “Short Rains” (OctoberNovember-December (OND)) 2015 season will be driven by the evolving El Niño conditions coupled with the warming of the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean adjacent to the East African coastline. Much of the country is therefore likely to experience highly enhanced rainfall that is likely to cause serious flooding over various flood prone parts of the country. However, there are a few regions that are likely to experience just normal rainfall with a tendency to above normal.