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Kenya

National Drought Early Warning Bulletin (September 2022)

Attachments

1. Drought situation overview

The drought situation continued to worsen in twenty (20) of the 23 ASAL counties. This is attributed to the failure of four consecutive seasons with the forecast for OND predicting the likely of fifth season under performing. The number of people in need of humanitarian assistance is projected to increase to 4.35Million by October 2022.

Ten (10) counties namely; Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Kajiado, Tharaka Nithi, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Tana River and Marsabit are under Alarm drought phase while Ten (10) counties including Embu, Garissa, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kwale and Kilifi are in Alert drought phase. The remaining three (3) counties including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in Normal drought phase. Worsening household food security situation has resulted in acute malnutrition rates noted across the counties with 942,000 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 134,000 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished in need of treatment.

2. Drought situation based on key indicators

2.1 August Rainfall Performance

Analysis of the August 2022 monthly rainfall indicates that several parts of the ASALs counties experienced near to below-average rainfall (less than 60mm of rainfall). The PNE1 counties including; Mandera,
Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River and parts of Garissa received traces of rainfall between < 10mm to 20mm of rainfall totals. The SEMA2 counties; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni and Kitui counties received very little rainfall in the range of (20mm - 60mm). The CMA3 counties; Kwale, Kilifi and Lamu counties received between (10mm - 40mm). Some parts of Agro-Pastoral (AGP) cluster; Baringo and West Pokot received July-August rainfall that was normal to above normal in the range of 80mm - 200mm of rainfall totals with some areas especially Pokot South receiving very high rainfall totals of >200mm

1 Pastoral North Eastern

2 South Eastern Marginal Agriculture

3 Coast Marginal Agriculture