Kenya

National Drought Early Warning Bulletin (September 2021)

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Situation Report
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Drought indicators

Rainfall Performance

During the month of August 2021, most ASAL counties remained generally dry and rainfall received was below the long term average of August 2021.Most parts of ASAL counties including; Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit, Tana River, Makueni, Kitui, Kajiado, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Nyeri, Isiolo, Meru North and Taita Taveta received less than 20mm of rainfall totals except the highland areas of rift valley including Baringo, Laikipia , Samburu, Narok and West Pokot which received between 51-100 mm of total rainfall. Figure 1 indicates observed rainfall totals during the month of August 2021.

Rainfall Forecast

According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will generally remain dry and sunny during the month of September 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month. However, areas bordering Uganda and Southern Sudan are likely to experience occasional rainfall during the first two weeks of the month. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be slightly above the long-term average amounts for September. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are likely to experience generally dry weather conditions with occasional light morning showers. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be below the long-term average for the month of September. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are likely to experience sunny and dry weather conditions for most of the month. However, occasional afternoon showers and cloudy conditions in the mornings are likely, especially during the first three weeks. The expected total rainfall amount is likely to be near the long-term average for September while North Eastern Kenya and Southeastern Lowlands including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Machakos, Makueni, Kitui, Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely are likely to experience generally sunny and dry weather conditions throughout the month.