Kenya

National Drought Early Warning Bulletin (May 2021)

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Situation Report
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Drought indicators

Rainfall

Onset of the long rains season was late as most ASAL counties did not receive rainfall from the second and third week of March when the March-April-May (MAM) season normally begins. During the month of April, depressed rainfall was experienced over most parts of the ASAL region with large areas in counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Tana river, Kilifi, Lamu, Laikipia and Nyeri (Kieni) receiving less than 50 percent of average amounts in April. Some parts of Mandera and Taita taveta received slightly above normal rains of between 75-100 percent of average amounts asshown in Figure 1.Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties.

Rainfall Forecast

According to Kenya Metrological Department (KMD), rainfall is expected to continue during the month of May 2021.Counties in North-western Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive rainfall characterized with near to slightly above average rainfall.
Occasional rainfall is likely to occur during the second half of the month. The expected total rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the region. North-eastern Region including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo will receive Occasional rainfall that is expected at the beginning of May. The rainfall is however likely to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season comes to cessation period. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be near the long-term average for the month of May. South-eastern Lowlands (Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, and Taita Taveta): Occasional rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. It is however expected to reduce in the third to fourth week as the rainy season ceases. The rainfall amounts are likely to be near to below the long-term average for the month of May. The Coastal Strip (Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale): is expected to receive occasional rainfall in May. The expected rainfall amounts are likely to be below the long-term average. May marks the peak of the Long rains season in the Coastal Strip. Highlands East of the Rift Valley and Central Kenya (Nyeri, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka Nithi): Above average rainfall is expected during the first half of the month. However occasional dry spells are likely especially during the second half of the forecast period. The rainfall amounts are likely to be above the long-term average for the region.