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Drought Situation Overview
Twenty-two counties were categorized under the ‘Normal’ phase except Kilifi (Alert) based on the range of environmental, production, access and utilization indicators monitored that fell within their usual ranges as a result of good performance of MAM 2024 rainfall season and ongoing JJAS light seasonal rains in western parts of Kenya. The situation is expected to continue in normal phase. However, the situation is projected to improve in coming months as we near onset of short rains, OND season. The number of people in need of assistance has dropped from 1.5M in February 2024 to 1M in August 2024.The number of children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has reduced from 847,932 (Feb 2024) to 760,488 reported in July 2024. In addition, the number of pregnant and breastfeeding women requiring treatment for acute malnutrition has also reduced from 123,567 (Feb 2024) to 112,401 reported in July 2024(KFSSG LRA 2024)
1.1 Observed drought indicators
1.1.1 July 2024 Rainfall Performance
July 2024 monthly rainfall analysis indicates that several parts of ASAL counties received trace amounts of rainfall. Pastoral North East counties including; Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Tana River, Garissa received between 2 – 20 mm of rainfall. Pastoral North West counties including Turkana, Marsabit and Samburu recorded considerable amounts of rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm – 121mm. This is attributed to the JJA rainfall season. The South East Marginal Agriculture counties including; Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Kajiado, Meru, Makueni, Kitui counties received trace amounts of rainfall ranging between 2mm – 50mm. Agro Pastoral cluster including; Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Baringo, Nyeri and West Pokot received considerable good rainfall amounts ranging between 61mm –100mm. The Coast Marginal Agriculture counties including; Kwale, Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu received trace rainfall ranging between 11- 60mm as shown figure 2.0.
1.1.2 August 2024 rainfall outlook
Rainfall outlook for the month of August 2024 is illustrated in figure 3. Generally, Pastoral North East livelihood zone region (Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Garissa; South East Marginal Agriculture including; Kitui, Makueni, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Agro Pastoral livelihood zones including; Kajiado, Narok, Nyeri, Laikipia; The coastal marginal agriculture counties include; Taita Taveta, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties; are forecasted to remain mainly sunny and dry conditions. Pastoral North West (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit) counties are forecasted to receive above normal JJA rainfall. Parts of counties like Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia Kajiado, Kitui and Narok are forecasted to experience intermittent cold and cloudy conditions with occasional rains.