National Drought Early Warning Bulletin (July 2021)


Drought indicators

Rainfall Performance

The month of June 2021 marked the beginning of the cold season with several parts of ASAL counties remaining dry.
According to metrological department, most of ASAL counties received less than 50 percent of average rainfall with most parts of Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo,
Kajiado, Tana River and Turkana receiving less than 25 percent of average amounts of rainfall during the month of June as shown in Figure 1a.The coastal strip received over 75 percent of average amounts. Spatio-temporal rainfall distribution was generally uneven and poor across the ASAL counties. Figure 1a indicates rainfall performance during the month of May as percentage of long term mean (LTM).

Rainfall Forecast

According to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), several parts of the country will be generally dry and sunny during the month of July 2021.Counties in Northwestern Region including Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu are likely to receive occasional rainfall during the beginning of the month and near average rainfall towards the end of the month. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near to above the long term average for July. Counties in the Coastal strip including Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale will likely receive occasional rainfall. The expected total rainfall is likely to be near the long-term average amounts for July. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley counties including Nyeri, Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi are expected to experience occasional cool and cloudy (overcast skies) conditions with occasional rains/drizzles while the Northeastern Kenya counties including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo and Southeastern lowlands counties including Machakos, Makueni, Kitui,
Taita Taveta and parts of Kajiado are likely to remain generally sunny and dry. Occasional cool and cloudy conditions are however likely to occur over some counties in southeastern Kenya especially those bordering the highlands east of the rift valley.