Narok County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for March 2015

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators

  • The biophysical indicators showed unusual fluctuations within the expected seasonal ranges, especially in the pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods.

  • The vegetation condition index (VCI-3month) was 29.70, which fell within the range moderate drought condition.

  • The state of water sources was below normal; less than 4 compared to 5 normally.

Socio-Economic (Impact) Indicators

Production indicators

  • The milk production levels were at an average of 380 (750-ml) bottles compared to a long-term average of 570 for the season.

  • There were increasing cases of migrations in search of pasture.

  • Most livestock body condition poor, from the previously fair across all livelihood zones, whose value is less than 4 compared to the normal of 4-5.

Access indicators

  • The milk consumption was below-average since it was recorded at 3 litres compared to a normal of 5 litres.high percentage of milk was reserved for children under five years and very little for sale due to scarcity.

Utilization indicators

  • The mid-upper arm circumference was recorded at 10.4% compared to the long term average of 14.4%, attributed to milk availability to children despite the dry spell.

Drought risks are medium with high vulnerability. The county had a delayed long rains season which led to diminishing water levels in main sources and a decrease in pasture availability. Livestock production decreased, especially milk production. The livestock body condition deteriorated and prices decreased significantly. The food security situation worsened, as the cereals though available in markets, were difficult to access due to poor terms of trade.
Therefore, the overall early warning stage for the county is at ALERT, with worsening trend with some livelihoods (Pastoral) in early ALARM.