Marsabit County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2021


Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

Rainfall: In the month under review, there was delayed onset of the short rains with a probability of cumulative rains less than 60 percent of the average. Probabilities of forecasted standard precipitation index ranged between 25-30 percent which is above the usual chance of 16 percent.
Vegetation condition: 3-months Vegetation Condition Index for the month under review was 35.55 (normal greenness) across the county.

Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production indicators: Livestock body condition was poor in all the livelihood zones. Milk production was significantly below the short term average. Livestock typically migrated to the dry season grazing areas.
Livestock deaths due to drought especially amongst camel calves were recorded across the County. Livestock morbidity cases increased in all the species. Cultivation of farmland occurred in the agro-pastoral areas.

Access indicators: Household and livestock water distances remarkably increased across the County and were at an all-time high. Milk consumption was below the short-term average and terms of trade declined significantly. Maize prices were above average while goat prices were below normal. Cattle and sheep prices were also below average.

Utilization indicators. Household food consumption score stagnated in the borderline food consumption category while households adopted frequent and severe coping mechanisms to cope with short term food consumption gaps at the household level. Trends in both SFP (increased wasting) and OTP new admissions were recorded(wasting). Admissions are generally on an increasing trend and expected to increase further.