Laikipia County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2017

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

Rainfall: The October November December (OND) rains commenced as at the third week of October. The County experienced rainfall ranging from heavy to light showers. Generally, the rains were distributed fairly in terms of time and space except in few pockets in the Pastoral zone.
The received rainfall was approximately 135% of the expected amount for the month, which is slightly above the normal range.

Vegetation Condition: The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is slightly above the normal range, indicating a fair to good state of pasture and browse condition across most areas. From field observations, this is largely true but there still exists areas with moderate vegetation deficit i.e. some parts of Mukogodo East & West, Sosian, Ngobit and Tigithi wards. The browse condition was largely fair to good in the MMF and MF zones but fair in the Pastoral zone with some few pockets experiencing poor browse.

Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

Production Indicators

– Livestock migration patterns in the Pastoral and some MMF zones were not normal for the time of the year. Milk production per household was within the normal range at this time of the year. The body condition of animals is still slightly below the normal range for the period but there is hope of improvement as the OND rains continue.

Access indicators

  • The terms of trade are still way below the normal range. The return distance from water sources to grazing areas is within the normal range.

Utilization indicators

– were all still within the normal range.

The EW phase is Alert for the whole County.

A larger part of the county (approx. 85%) is within the normal range with the rest still experiencing drought effects. However, with the commencement of the OND rains, the remaining areas are expected to improve if the rains persist.