Laikipia County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for June 2015

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

In June, all biophysical indicators were within the expected seasonal range. The Vegetation Condition Index is slightly above the normal range, indicating a good state of pasture and browse condition.
Despite this, the pasture and browse condition in pastoral zone is fair to poor according to field observations (although the VCI at 52.81 contradicts this)while in MMF and MF zones the same is fair to good due to the now ending MAM rains, whose onset was late. The current SPI is within the normal range due to the moderate to heavy rainfall recorded across the County during the month under review. The state of water sources is normal and the situation is expected to remain stable for at least the next one month.

Three production indicators are still below the normal range for the period. Livestock migration patterns are not normal for the time of the year. Milk production per household is below the normal range and livestock deaths due to drought and diseases were reported. The body condition of animals is generally within the normal range for the period but the situation is slightly below normal in the pastoral LZ.
This is due to factors such as overgrazing and overstocking. The situation may degenerate as the influx of livestock from neighbouring counties is already being reported.

As for access, milk consumption is within the normal range. The terms of trade (ToT) are within the normal range, but are slightly shifting in favour of cereal farmers. Utilization indicators are within the normal range. However, MUAC levels in Magadi – Olmoran (MMF) sentinel are outside the normal range.

Since no physical indicator, three production indicators and no access indicator are outside the normal range, the EW phase is on Alert but stable across the whole County.

The drought risk is low due to the now ending rain season. In view of the current situation, it is important to embark on drought preparedness activities across the entire County.