Kwale County Early Warning Flag - May 2015


Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

  • Most bio-physical indicators were within normal ranges

  • The vegetation condition index VCI-3month was 38.54 compared to the normal of 50.

  • The SPI was calculated at 0.53 compared to a normal of - 0.3

  • The state of water sources was normal at 5.

Production indicators

  • The milk production levels were above-average at 137 750-ml bottles compared to a long-term average of 89.2.

Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

  • There were no migrations in search of pasture and water.

  • The livestock body condition is rated at 5 compared to 4-5 normally.

Access indicators

  • The milk consumption was above-average since it was recorded at 65 750-ml bottles compared to a normal of 40 bottles.

Utilization indicators

  • The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition based on the mid-upper arm circumference was recorded at 4.5% which was below the normal of 6.5%.

Drought risks are low as most indicators show no unusual fluctuations outside seasonal ranges. The long rain season is progressing well and crop and livestock production likely to improve in the coming months. Food availability is therefore likely to increase when harvesting begins and so will food access as prices fall. Consequently, the nutritional status of children is likely to improve.