Kwale County Early Warning Flag - March 2015

Situation Report
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Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical Indicators

  • Most bio-physical showed some fluctuations outside expected seasonal norms.

  • The vegetation condition index VCI-3month was 29.06 compared to the normal of 40-50.

  • The state of water sources was below normal at 4 compared to 5 normally.
    Production indicators

  • The milk production levels were above-average at 132 750-ml bottles compared to a long-term average of 80-85.

Socio-Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators)

  • There were no unusual migrations in search of pasture and water.

  • The livestock body condition is rated at 5 compared to 4-5 normally.
    Access indicators

  • The milk consumption was above-average since it was recorded at 60.5 750-ml bottles compared to a normal of 40 bottles.

Utilization indicators

  • The percentage of children at risk of malnutrition based on the mid-upper arm circumference was recorded at 5.2% which was below the normal of 5.8%.

Drought risks are medium as most indicators show some fluctuations outside the normal ranges. This is particularly evident in the livestock farming livelihood zone which has continued to post a deteriorating trend. The county is therefore placed in the first stages of early alert although with a stable trend since the season has begun that is likely to reverse the negative trends evident in most bio-physical indicators.