Kitui County: Drought Early Warning Bulletin for October 2014


Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. The depressed rainfall experienced in the last ten months has impacted negatively on the state of pasture.
The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is equal to 20.06 in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, which clearly indicate a drought situation worsening especially in Mwingi North Sub-County.
However some light rains received in some parts of Mixed farming livelihood zone have slightly improved the situation of Mixed farming in this livelihood.

Two production indicators and all access indicator are significantly outside the normal ranges for the period.

Livestock migration patterns are not normal for this Period of the year, with intense migration from outside the county. Following the degradation of Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, the body conditions of animals are gradually worsening and currently below normal ranges for the period. Finally, Milk production is above normal range and consumption is below long term average and normal ranges for the period. Since both biophysical and production indicators are outside normal ranges, the EW phase in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood is in alarm with an improving trend while the Mixed farming livelihood zone is in alert and stable due to the recent light rains received in these areas.

Drought risks are medium in that some rains could be received during the first dekad of November and mitigate in the short term the current drought situation. However, drought risks might increase considerably if no significant rains are received in the next one month, with a worsening alarm scenario developing. In view of the current alert situation, it is necessary to promptly activate the county drought contingency plans especially in support to livestock production, water supply and health & nutrition.The current EW situation justifies and triggers the disbursement of DCF under NDMA.