Kenya

Kenya: Review of the weather in March-April-May (MAM) and June-July-August (JJA) 2010 seasons and the outlook for the October-November-December 2010 "short rains" season

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1. SUMMARY

Review of the Rainfall in March-May 2010

Most parts of the country recorded enhanced rainfall that was well distributed both in time and space during March-April-May 2010 "Long-Rains" Season. This was more so over the Northwestern, Western, Central and Northeastern parts of the country where most Meteorological Stations recorded rainfall that was well above 100 percent of their seasonal Long-Term Means (LTMs) for March to May.

Some impacts associated with the March-May 2010 rainfall

The heavy and continuous rainfall impacted positively on the agricultural, water resources, livestock, energy and other rainfall dependent sectors. However, there was a negative impact on Disaster Management since floods and landslides/mudslides that occurred in different parts of the country claimed several human lives, washed away animals and livestock, destroyed property worth millions of shillings, and displaced many people.

Review of the Rainfall in June-August 2010

In June-July-August (JJA) 2010, the Western Highlands and the Coastal areas continued to record near-average amounts of rainfall. The rainfall was, however, generally depressed at most stations.

The rest of the country remained generally dry.

Cool and cloudy conditions prevailed in the Central Highlands and Nairobi area during JJA and more so during June, the second half of July and the first half of August.

Forecast for the "Short Rains" (October-November-December) 2010 season

The Climate Outlook for the "Short Rains" (October-November-December (OND)) 2010 season indicates that much of the country is likely to experience generally depressed rainfall. The expected depressed seasonal rains are associated with the presence of an evolving La Niña in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean coupled with cooler than average conditions in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline). This La Niña is currently classified as weak to moderate and is expected to strengthen with time. The distribution of the rainfall in time and space is, therefore, expected to be generally poor over most places.