The flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties are currently experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, which are expected to continue through January 2025. Households continue to recover from the impacts of the severe flooding in April and May. Humanitarian assistance provided to over 20,000 flood-affected households lasted through the end of June to provide support until the long rains harvests. However, due to crop losses, some assistance is still ongoing. However, it is only being provided to fewer than 10 percent of the affected households. Households in IDP camps and those who lost their crops due to the flooding are anticipated to increase the use of negative coping strategies such as intensifying consumption coping strategies, withdrawing children from school, and reducing expenses on health to bridge food and income gaps.
In marginal areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected as food availability and access are supported by below-average staple food prices, carry-over household food stocks, and the 2024 long rains harvests. The 2024 long rains harvests are estimated to range from 10 – 75 percent below average across marginal areas due to constrained access to inputs such as seeds and fertilizers, erratic rainfall, flooding, and pest infestations. An exception, however, is Kitui County where the projected production is 21 percent above the average attributed to climate-smart agriculture services. As harvests become available, household food availability increases; however, approximately 20 percent of poor households are still unable to afford essential non-food needs.
Across pastoral areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January following drought recovery driven by three consecutive positive rainfall seasons. Improved livestock production has increased milk production above the five-year average, improving household purchasing power. However, below-average herd sizes limit the total milk production and the number of animals available for consumption and sale. A seasonally increasing number of poor households are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January, with area-level outcomes likely in Turkana and Marsabit counties.
According toglobal forecasts, driven by the transition to La Nina, the 2024 October - December rains are estimated to be 45 – 90 percent of normal across the arid and semi-arid parts of Kenya with parts of northern Kenya receiving rainfall amounts less than 45 percent of the averages in the worst-case scenario. However, uncertainty exists due to the long-term nature of the forecasts.
Maize prices are declining, driven by carry-over food stocks, ongoing long rains harvests, and an increase in cheaper cross-border imports. In June, maize prices ranged between average to 52 percent below the five-year averages except in Lamu and the pastoral markets, where maize prices were 7 - 36 percent above average. In contrast, bean prices remain high due to below-average local production and high demand. Bean prices are 8 - 48 percent above average, except in Nyeri and Meru, where they are 12 - 32 percent below average due to available harvests. The below-average prices of maize and other major staples are expected to maintain near to above-average household food access at least through December.
