The 2026 March to May long rains startedroughly 10 days earlyin most pastoral areas and20-40 days earlyin the marginal agricultural areas. Cumulative rainfall totals to date have exceeded150 percent of averageacross the country, and are thewettest on recordto date in western, central, and southwestern Kenya. The atypically early and wet start of the season is partially attributed to the Madden-Jullian Oscillation (MJO). Global Ensemble forecasts indicate a higher probability of persistent enhanced rainfall through May, which will likely result in average to above-average long rains in most parts of the country. However, elevated chances of a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions from neutral to El Niño occurring in or around June have increased the probabilities of below-average long rains between June and September in the unimodal areas of the north Rift and western Kenya.
The anomalous rainfall has resulted insevere flash floodingin parts of central, Rift Valley, western, coastal, and southwestern Kenya.Recent reportsconfirm at least 110 fatalities countrywide, the majority in theNairobi region, and more than 34,700 people have been displaced so far. Flood waters have caused destruction of property in affected areas, and destroyed transport infrastructure, constraining the supply of food and non-food commodities. While the government and humanitarian agencies have activated multi-agency response mechanisms, concern remains about the adequacy of the interventions to aid in recovery, given the elevated risk of further flooding.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across the pastoral areas, with worst-affected households experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Low herd sizes and limited forage availability continue to depress livestock productivity, further constraining household incomes amid sustained elevated food prices and impeding food access. Households continue to rely on coping strategies, such as selling productive assets and reducing expenditures on health and veterinary services. Although recent rainfall is recharging open water sources, pasture and browse have not yet regenerated. Livestock remain concentrated in the dry-season grazing areas away from households, while those that had migrated are yet to return, sustaining atypically low household milk availability. Livestock productivity remains below average, and household milk availability and income from sales remain atypically low. At the same time, below-average herd sizes are combined with reduced sales, as households prioritize improving body conditions and herd sizes during the long rains, which continues to limit incomes and household purchasing capacities.
In the marginal agricultural areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, and Meru (Meru North), where depleted household food stocks following three successive below-average seasons and elevated food prices continue to constrain household access to food and sustain the use of coping strategies such as reducing expenditure on health and inputs such as fertilizers and certified seeds. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes prevail in the rest of the marginal agricultural areas, where food stocks are atypically low but still sufficient to support minimum food needs while households rely on coping strategies to meet essential non-food needs. Ongoing land preparation and planting activities for the long rains season began early and are providing income for poor households, but earnings remain insufficient to offset the large income deficits and high indebtedness, amid atypically high market reliance.
Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes persist in Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps and Kalobeyei refugee settlement, with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), driven by limited access to own food production and income-generating opportunities. From February through September, WFP assistance has been increased to80 percent of the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) for households in Category 1 (highly vulnerable) and 60 percent for Category 2 households (limited ability to meet basic needs). For Categories 1 and 2, cash transfers account for 20 percent of the MFB, and the balance provided directly as in-kind food. Category 3 households (partially self-reliant) are receiving cash equivalent to 20 percent of the MFB. Category 4 (self-reliant) and uncategorized households continue to receive no assistance. Approximately 30 percent of refugee households are in Category 1, 39 percent in Category 2, and 24 percent in Category 3. Category 4 and unclassified households compose 5 percent and 1 percent of the total, respectively. The limited availability of complementary non-food items compels many households to divert part of their assistance to meet essential non-food needs, undermining adequate food consumption.
Livestock prices across the pastoral areas remain elevated, with the price of a mature medium-sized goat ranging 6-45 percent above the five-year average in February, except in Wajir and Mandera, where prices were 8 percent and 35 percent below average, respectively, due to poor body conditions. The elevated prices are sustaining favorable goat-to-cereal price ratios (except Wajir and Mandera); however, atypically low herd sizes continue to constrain pastoralist households from conducting sales and preventing them from capitalizing on the favorable terms of trade.
Staple food prices remain elevated, driven by elevated demand amid atypically low domestic stocks due to poor short rains performance in most marginal agricultural areas and seasonal depletion of most stock from the high and medium potential areas of the North Rift and western Kenya. In February, maize prices were 6-33 percent above the five-year average across the country, except in Kilifi and Nyeri, where prices were within average. The price of beans was 10-44 percent above the five-year average across most markets, except in Kilifi and Nairobi, where they were near average.
From January-March, WFP provided food assistance accounting for 50 percent of minimum food needs to approximately 160,000 people in Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, and Turkana counties. The Kenyan government has also allocated 9 billion KES for emergency food assistance in drought-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural areas through June 2026 and NGOs are also providing food assistance in some areas.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks for Kenya’s food security by disrupting trade flows, raising input costs, and destabilizing supply chains.Fertilizer shipments have already been delayed, affecting timely planting or application during the March-September 2026 long rains season in the North Rift and western Kenya. The resulting fertilizer shortages and rising global shipping costs are expected to drive fertilizer prices higher, reducing affordability and application rates, which will likely reduce yields. Elevated shipping and insurance costs will also drive higher prices for heavily imported food commodities, such as wheat, rice, and cooking oil. Expected increases in fuel prices will increase transport costs and inflationary pressure across the country, eroding consumer purchasing power, particularly among low-income households. Kenya’s agricultural exports to the Middle East, especially tea and livestock products, have already declined due to security concerns for shipping vessels, undermining rural incomes and foreign exchange earnings.
