Attachments
Key Messages
In the pastoral areas, forage and water resources have significantly improved following the conclusion of the October to December 2023 short rains. Satellite-monitored waterpoints indicate that water levels across northern Kenya are greater than the long-term median water level during the pastoral lean season, keeping livestock in the wet season grazing areas and lowering domestic trekking distances for water. The good pasture and forage conditions support good to very good body conditions for cattle, camels, goats, and sheep, along with increased livestock productivity. Relatedly, livestock sale values are around 10 to over 100 percent higher than the five-year average in pastoral markets, with households consuming 0.3 to 1.8 liters of milk daily. The high livestock values and increased access to milk support widespread improvement in household access to food and income, with more households improving to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are still present in northwestern, northern, and northeastern pastoral livelihood zones.
In the marginal agricultural areas, harvesting of short-cycle legumes such as beans, cowpeas, and green grams is underway. In the Southeast, average to slightly above-average cowpea and green gram harvests are expected. In contrast, a below-average harvest of beans is likely in most areas of the Southeast following poor crop performance due to excessive moisture during the season. However, in the coastal marginal agricultural areas, average to slightly above-average harvests of pulses are expected as the short rains did subside during the critical flowering and podding stages in December. Maize crops are nearing maturity, with average to above-average production expected in most areas. The ongoing harvests are gradually improving household food availability while reducing market reliance, with agricultural labor opportunities improving household access to income and purchasing power, sustaining widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
In December 2023, Rift Valley Fever (RVF) cases were reported in Wajir, with the Department of Livestock and Veterinary Services confirming an outbreak. The results from an emergency sampling exercise indicated that around 16 percent of the 321 samples were positive for RVF and further investigations are ongoing. However, the first human case of RVF was confirmed in late January in the North Horr sub-county of Marsabit county. These cases have triggered a nationwide alert issued by the Ministry of Health on January 24, prescribing measures including further investigations to identify additional cases, assess the extent of the outbreak and implement relevant preparedness and response plans to mitigate the impact of subsequent outbreaks.
Staple food prices remain high despite the availability of local unimodal production from the high and medium potential areas of the North Rift and western Kenya and cross-border imports from Tanzania and Uganda. The high prices are likely driven by high demand and high marketing costs due to high fuel prices and the high cost of cross-border imports as the local currency continues to depreciate against the major international and regional currencies. In December, maize prices were around 10 to 90 percent higher than the five-year average in most markets, with maize prices similar to the five-year average in Lamu. In Wajir, the high maize prices are likely driven by supply disruption following the recent floods' destruction of key supply routes. Similarly, bean prices are around 15 to 70 percent higher than the five-year average due to low local availability following successive below-average seasons and a likely below-average 2023 short rains harvest due to excessive moisture in most areas.
Global forecast models indicate that the March to May long rains in northeastern Kenya are likely to be average, with local variations. However, NMME-based rootzone soil moisture forecasts indicate that soil moisture will be among the highest on record in northeastern Kenya through at least April 2024, increasing the risk of flooding during the March to May long rains. The average rains are expected to provide average agricultural wage labor opportunities during the cropping season and maintain at least average livestock productivity, boosting household income in agricultural and pastoral areas.