The 2026 January-March lean season is expected to be particularly harsh, with northern and eastern pastoral areas being most affected.Extremelypoor rainfallduring the October-December 2025 short rains season, coupled with persistently above-average temperatures, have led to acute shortages of forage and water in pastoral areas, triggering atypical livestock movements, declining livestock body conditions, and below-average animal productivity. As pasture, browse, and water become increasingly scarce through the January-March dry season, livestock are being forced to trek atypically long distances between grazing areas and watering points. As a result, livestock body conditions are rapidly deteriorating and leading to further declines in milk production, consumption, and sales.
The northern and eastern pastoral areas are experiencing area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as dwindling livestock productivity and limited income drive food consumption gaps. Declining milk production has reduced household availability, reducing both consumption and sales, while atypically small herd sizes have constrained livestock sales. As a result of these restrictions on pastoral households’ two primary sources of income, household food access is constrained. Most poor households have reduced their meal frequency and quantity and are adopting further coping strategies including prioritizing feeding children and reducing essential non-food expenditures like health and education. As conditions worsen towards the peak of the dry season, an increasing number of households in pastoral areas will be pushed into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
As dry conditions intensify, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand into the marginal agricultural areas of Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu between February and March, driven by a third consecutive below-average production season. Across other marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist through May, as atypically low household food stocks and limited incomes support minimally adequate food consumption but impede households’ ability to afford non-food expenditures. Below- to significantly below-average short rains production, coupled with the absence of carry-over stocks from the long rains harvests, are sustaining atypically high reliance on market purchases. Purchasing power remains constrained by elevated staple food prices and limited typical income-earning opportunities, such as crop sales and agricultural labor during harvesting. Households are increasingly engaging in atypical income-earning activities such as firewood and charcoal production, increased livestock sales – especially small stock (goats and sheep) – water sales (for households with donkeys, used as pack animals), and labor-related migration, and increasing reliance on remittances, food purchases on credit, and borrowing from friends and relatives. Households are also reducing meal frequency, quantity, and dietary diversity (most households are consuming only grains and pulses, as they lack access to fruits and vegetables).
The March-May long rains will be crucial for the recovery of the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas. The long rains are currently expected to be average and to support gradual improvements in forage, water availability, and crop production. However, high uncertainty remains, as forecast models show no clear favorability toward average, below-average, or above-average rainfall. In the unimodal areas of western Kenya, the onset of the long rains is also expected to be on time and cumulative totals to be average through May.
Livestock sales remain limited due to below-average herd sizes, although prices in most pastoral areas are above the five-year average, supporting favorable terms of trade for households with animals to sell. However, deteriorating body conditions are beginning to drive prices down, particularly in Wajir and Mandera, where dry conditions are most severe. In December, the price of a medium-sized goat was 15-45 percent higher than the five-year average across the pastoral areas, except in Wajir and Mandera where prices dropped 14 and 18 percent below average, respectively. Similarly, goat-to-maize terms of trade was 9-34 percent above the five-year average across all pastoral areas, except for Wajir and Mandera, where it was 20 and 8 percent below average, respectively, reflecting the reduced livestock values in these areas.
Staple food prices remain elevated nationally, driven by atypically high demand and fuel prices which are driving increased transportation costs. In December, maize prices ranged from average to 18 percent above the five-year average in most monitored markets. Despite above-average maize production in late 2025 from the unimodal regions of the North Rift and western Kenya, supplemented by imports from Uganda and Tanzania, local market demand remains atypically high. Traders and millers are competing in purchasing maize in anticipation of shortages from below-average short rains production in marginal agricultural areas, fueling speculative pricing ahead of expected supply deficits. Countrywide, bean prices were average to 15 percent above the five-year average (with the notable exception of Nairobi where they were 7 percent below average), supported by strong demand amid below-average production in the marginal agricultural areas, including depressed harvests of substitutes such as green grams and cowpeas.
The Hunger Safety Net Program (HSNP) continues to provide cash transfers to 132,800 vulnerable households in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River, and Samburu, providing payments of 5,400 KES per household every two months. However, if recent inconsistencies in disbursements continue, they are likely to undermine the effectiveness of the HSNP as the anomalous dry period intensifies.
Kakuma and Dadaab refugee camps and Kalobeyei refugee settlement continue to experience Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes as humanitarian assistance prevents more severe conditions. The WFP food assistance to refugees increased in December to 60 percent of the Minimum Food Basket (MFB) for households in Category 1 (highly vulnerable), 40 percent for Category 2 households (households with limited ability to meet basic needs), and 20 percent for Category 3 households (partially self-reliant households).
