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Acute Food Insecurity Overview
Between July and September 2023, coinciding with the Agropastoral harvest and pastoral lean season, about 2.8 million people in Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Among them 2.3 million are experiencing Crisis, IPC Phase 3, and nearly 500,000 are in IPC Phase 4, Emergency. Compared to the situation in the last analysis (short rains assessment), there has been a general improvement across the ASAL counties, from 4.4 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above in February 2023 and 5.4 million in March – June 2023 to 2.8 million in the current period of this analysis. This improvement largely results from a good harvest across the ASALs supported by favourable rainfall. Nevertheless, a combination of shocks continues to hinder many households’ food security, in particular high staple food prices catalysed by rising inflation. Moreover, the season witnessed significant challenges, including flash floods during the long rains, causing the loss of livestock, damage to infrastructure, property, farmland, and human-wildlife conflict arising from competition for natural resources.
The projection period (October 2023 to January 2024) suggests that, despite some seasonal improvements, Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera will likely remain in Crisis, IPC Phase 3, while other counties are expected to transition to Stressed, IPC Phase 2. Approximately 1.5 million people are likely to be classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, out of which 1.3 million are in IPC Phase 3, Crisis and 266,000 are in IPC Phase 4, Emergency. The outcomes of prolonged drought have therefore negatively affected livelihoods, leading to reduced livestock populations, smaller cultivated areas due to decreased purchasing power for inputs, and reluctance to reinvest in agriculture after consecutive failures.
Acute Malnutrition Overview
The nutrition situation has improved in most arid counties. Marked improvements were observed in Laisamis as reflected in the decrease in the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) from 30 percent in July 2022 to 8 percent; Nort Horr from 29.7 percent in July 2022 to 22.5 percent in July 2023; Turkana North from 38.8 percent in July 2022 to 23.7 percent in July 2023 and Turkana South from 41.4 percent in July 2022 to 32.7 percent July 2023. These improvements are attributed to drought response and the long rains from April 2023. Despite these improvements, acute malnutrition rates continue to be high and above the emergency threshold in most arid counties, primarily attributed to the compounded adverse impacts of the prolonged drought that negatively affected food security, water, hygiene and sanitation, and disease. Turkana County remains a hotspot of acute malnutrition IPC Acute Malnutrition [AMN] Phase 4 or above) with Extremely Critical, IPC Phase 5 and GAM (by WHZ) of over 30 percent observed in Turkana South, despite significant humanitarian food assistance. Similarly, high levels of acute malnutrition are observed in other ASAL Counties such as Marsabit (North Horr, and Laisamis), West Pokot, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Samburu, East Pokot in Baringo County, and Isiolo, currently experiencing IPC AMN Phase 4, Critical, and GAM WHZ 15 to 29.9 percent.