Attachments
Acute Food Insecurity Overview
Latest data shows a likely unprecedented deterioration in Kenya’s food security situation, with over 5.4 million people experiencing acute food insecurity between March and June this year and likely to deepen in the following months. In the current period (February), corresponding to the short rain harvest season, a slight decrease in the severity of food insecurity is observed across Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) areas, which presented four counties in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency) in the previous season (namely Isiolo, Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera) that improved to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). This is mainly due to the direct impact of the rains on livelihoods in these areas. However, the improvement is expected to be limited in time, and further deterioration is projected between March and June 2023. The provisional alleviation of food insecurity conditions in these areas in particular, however, did not translate into an improvement to the Extremely Critical level (IPC AMN Phase 5) of acute malnutrition in parts of Marsabit (Laisamis) and Turkana South, and other areas, like North Turkana, Wajir and North Horr are also projected to reach Extremely Critical levels of acute malnutrition.
In the current period, it is estimated that around 4.4 million people (27% of the ASAL population) are facing high levels of Acute Food Insecurity – IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, of which about 774,000 people are in IPC AFI Phase 4 (Emergency). Compared to the same period last year, this represents a 43% increase in population in IPC Phase 3 or above, while compared to the previous analysis period (October-December 2022), the prevalence of population in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above is similar – with a reduction of the population in IPC Phase 4. Yet, in the projected period, March – June 2023, the severity of food insecurity is expected to worsen again: about 5.4 million people (32% of the population analysed) are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC AFI Phase 3 or above), of which 1.2 million people (7%) will likely be in Emergency. This latest projection represents the highest magnitude and severity of acute food insecurity in the ASAL areas in years; urgent action is required to reduce food gaps, protect their livelihoods, and prevent and treat acute malnutrition.
Acute Malnutrition Overview
Acute malnutrition across the ASAL counties has significantly deteriorated, and such is the trend over the past seasons. Compared to last year during the same period, the nutrition situation is of great concern: Laisamis in Marsabit County and Turkana South was classified in Extremely Critical levels of Acute Malnutrition (IPC AMN Phase 5 - GAM WHZ ≥30 percent). Samburu, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Turkana West, Turkana Central, Turkana North, Tiaty Sub-County in Baringo, North Horr and Moyale sub-counties in Marsabit County in a Critical situation (IPC AMN Phase 4 - GAM WHZ 15 to 29.9 percent) while West Pokot, Laikipia, Tana River and Wajir are in a Serious situation (IPC AMC Phase 3 - GAM WHZ 10 to 14.9 percent). Acute food insecurity, primarily due to low milk availability, WASH, high disease burden and suboptimal multisector interventions to address the needs, compounded by insecurity, are amongst the major contributing factors in the worst affected areas.
For the projected period (March to May), the situation is expected to deteriorate, with four areas expected to be in IPC AMN Phase 5. The deteriorating nutrition situation is mainly attributed to the worsening food insecurity, characterised by low milk availability, increasing food prices, unfavourable terms of trade and insufficient water.