Kenya: IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition Analysis (July - December 2022) Published on September 28, 2022



According to the most recent analysis, from July to September 2022 (lean season), about 3.5 million people (24% of the ASAL population) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity – IPC Phase 3 or above, with about 2.7 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 785,000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). This is a 10% increase from the same period in 2021 where 2.1 million people were categorized in IPC Phase 3 and IPC Phase 4. The food insecurity is primarily driven by a combination of shocks, including a fourth successive below average rainy season which was poorly distributed in space and short-lived which resulted in below average crop production to near crop failure and poor livestock production; localised resource-based conflict; and high food prices as a result of the war in Ukraine and low in-country production. The most affected counties, representing 40% of the total country population in IPC Phase 3 or above are: Isiolo (50%), Turkana (50%), Garissa (45%), Mandera (45%), Marsabit (45%), Samburu (45%), Wajir (45%) and Baringo (40%). These are predominantly pastoral livelihoods.

In the projected period (October – December 2022), the food security situation is likely to worsen, and more people may require urgent action to reduce food gaps and protect their livelihoods. About 4.4 million people are projected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above). Overall, 3.1 million people (21% of the population analysed) will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 1.2 million people (8% of the population analysed) in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Seasonal improvement is not projected, as above-average staple food prices driven by low production and limited supplies, combined with inadequate income from agricultural-waged labour opportunities and crop sales will continue to limit household food access in agro-pastoral livelihood zones. In Agro-Pastoral livelihoods, livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to deteriorate due to declining forage and water availability. This will likely result in a decline in household access to food and income, as milk production and livestock sale value are highly affected by the absence of pasture and water.

The nutrition situation has significantly deteriorated across the counties compared to the same season last year. Based on the July 2022 analysis, malnutrition levels were Extremely Critical (IPC AMN Phase 5) in Turkana North, Turkana South and Laisamis sub-counties, critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) in Mandera, Garissa, Turkana West, Turkana central, Wajir, Isiolo, Samburu, North Horr, and Tiaty in Baringo County. Saku, Tana River and West Pokot Counties were classified in serious IPC AMN Phase 3 while Moyale was in Αlert (IPC AMN Phase 2).