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Overview
From July to September 2023 (coinciding with the harvest season for Agropastoral livelihoods and the lean season for pastoral livelihoods), approximately 2.8 million people (17 percent of the ASAL population) are classified in IPC Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) of these 2.3 million people are in IPC Phase 3, Crisis and close to 500,000 people in IPC Phase 4, Emergency. Compared to the situation in the last analysis (short rains assessment), there has been a general improvement across the ASAL counties, from 4.4 million people in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above in February 2023 and 5.4 million in March – June 2023 to 2.8 million in the current period of this analysis. This improvement largely results from a good harvest across the ASALs supported by favourable rainfall. Nevertheless, a combination of shocks continues to hinder many households’ food security, in particular high staple food prices catalysed by rising inflation. The season’s performance had a considerable impact across the ASALs during the long rains through flash floo ds, including loss of livestock, destruction of infrastructure, property, and farmland and localised resource-based and human-wildlife conflict. Based on the analysis, around eight predominantly pastoral livelihood counties are classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 (Crisis), and six counties have recorded at least 30 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3 or above: Mandera (30 percent), Samburu (30 percent), Wajir (30 percent), Garissa (35 percent), Turkana (35 percent) and Marsabit (40 percent).
In the projection period, October 2023 to January 2024, despite the seasonal improvements, Turkana, Marsabit, and Mandera will likely remain in IPC AFI Phase 3. At the same time, the other counties are likely to improve to IPC Phase 2, Stressed. Approximately 1.5 million people have classified in IPC Phase 3 or above; of these, 266,000 people are classified in IPC Phase 4, Emergency and 1.3 million are classified in IPC Phase 3, Crisis. Despite some factors having shown improvements, like livestock prices, it was clear that the impacts of drought have affected livelihoods, with livestock populations being in stock, significantly smaller areas under cultivation resulting from reduced purchasing power of inputs and reluctance to invest back in agriculture after the previous consecutive failures.
The nutrition situation has improved in most arid counties. Marked improvements were observed in Laisamis as reflected in the decrease in the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) from 30 percent in July 2022 to 8 percent; Nort Horr from 29.7 percent in July 2022 to 22.5 percent in July 2023; Turkana North from 38.8 percent in July 2022 to 23.7 percent in July 2023 and Turkana South from 41.4 percent in July 2022 to 32.7 percent July 2023. These improvements are attributed to drought response and the long rains from April 2023. Despite these improvements, acute malnutrition rates continue to be high and above the emergency threshold in most arid counties, primarily attributed to the compounded adverse impacts of the prolonged drought that negatively affected food security, water, hygiene and sanitation, and disease. Turkana County remains a hotspot of acute malnutrition IPC Acute Malnutrition [AMN] Phase 4 or above) with Extremely Critical,
IPC Phase 5 and GAM (by WHZ) of over 30 percent observed in Turkana South, despite significant humanitarian food assistance. Similarly, high levels of acute malnutrition are observed in other ASAL Counties such as Marsabit (North Horr, and Laisamis), West Pokot, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Samburu, East Pokot in Baringo County, and Isiolo, currently experiencing IPC AMN Phase 4, Critical, and GAM WHZ 15 to 29.9 percent.