Attachments
SUMMARY OF THE EARLY ACTION PROTOCOL
The IFRC Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) allocated CHF 192,698 for the implementation anticipatory actions to reduce and mitigate the impact of riverine floods in Kenya. This Early Action Protocol includes an allocation of CHF 139,580 to preposition stock and undertake annual readiness activities in order to implement early actions, if and when the trigger is reached. The early actions to be conducted have been pre-agreed with the National Society and are described in the Early Action Protocol summary https://reliefweb.int/attachments/99243016-0e66-3de1-8587-47b99b1038ff/EAP2021KE01_Kenya%20Floods.pdf
This report summarizes the annual readiness and prepositioning activities and Early actions done in the reporting period. The report also includes any changes or updates done to the initially agreed plan.
Activities done during this reporting period included readiness mainly monitoring of the flood risk and activation of the flood EAP. Towards the rainfall season of October to December, the World Meteorological Organization declared onset of El Nino on July 4, 2023. The phenomenon is known to enhance seasonal rainfall over Kenya and most parts of the world. In August 2023, the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) issued the October to December seasonal forecast for Kenya that emphasized on above average seasonal rainfall expected, driven by El Nino coupled with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. The rainfall season began peaking in the last week of October. Since the onset of the season in October, the season exhibited enhanced rainfall that abruptly started filling up the river channels.
Parallel to this, KRCS kept monitoring the risk of flooding. On 02 November, a flood wave was observed over Garissa Bridge— the first gauging station over lower Tana. The water level at this point reached 4 meters, a level that is earmarked as alarming, for which the discharge overtops the riverbanks leading to flooding further downstream. The level is red-marked by the Water Resources Authority in Kenya to serve a flood alarm over the river basin. A flood wave observed at Garissa Bridge takes about 48 hours to reach the next station (Hola) in the downstream. By November 4th, water levels at Garissa had surpassed 5 meter mark—bordering the highest mark of the river gauge while the levels at Hola have reached alarm level. Additionally, rainfall forecast for that week indicated Kenyan central highlands (source regions of the river) we expected to continue receiving heavy rainfall. The flood wave was expected to begin overtopping riverbanks along the lower Tana as heavy rains continued pounding over central highlands and other Tana basin source regions.
At this time, streamflow forecast at Garissa Bridge from GLoFAS model remained low, under the 1-in-2 year flood. While the GLoFAS forecast is the trigger as per the Kenya flood EAP, caution was taken not to ignore the observed imminent flood at this time. We chose to proceed with activation of the flood Early Actions despite GLoFAS’s miss of this flood wave. We recognize analysis of the GLoFAS skill over Tana basin was relatively low with about double False Alarm Ratio (at 0.5) compared to performance of the model in other basins. We acknowledged that the low forecast skill in GLoFAS relates to lack of assimilation of observed data.
With the above information, IFRC agreed to activate the Kenya National riverine flood EAP in Tana based on the following:
• They recognized the limitation of the GloFAS forecasting skills for the specific geographical area of
the Tana river.
• They acknowledged that the river water levels reached the danger thresholds defined in the EAP in
2 locations.
• They acknowledge that according to the KMD more heavy rainfall were expected in the oncoming weeks.
The actions stipulated in the flood EAP were implemented to protect communities in lower Tana from Adverse effects of floods in the following areas of focus:
• Disaster risk reduction
• Shelter
• Health
• WASH
• Livelihoods and food security
And within the window of opportunity provided before impacts of floods peaked in lower Tana. We prioritized
the following areas:
• Garsen South
• Garsen North
• Garsen Central
• Chewele