Food security summary and implications
Food security prospects for drought-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural farm households are closely tied to the outcome of the 2006 short-rains season. The season has started in all areas of the country, and rains have been heavy – in some instances with devastating effects. However, should rains continue with moderation through end of the season, the food security situation of drought-affected households is expected to improve substantially. While good rains will improve food security, pastoral livelihoods require several favorable seasons in order to recover from the impacts of successive poor seasons over the past five years. In addition, long-term multi-sectoral interventions that build upon the productivity and resilience of livelihoods are urgently required at this time. If current rains continue, farming households in the drought-affected marginal agricultural lowlands will recover much more quickly because of the region's disproportionate dependence on the short-rains season.
Current hazard summary
- Exceptionally heavy rains cause severe flooding and population displacement in 8 districts of the Coast and northern pastoral regions; about 80,000 are affected.
- Key supply routes have been cut by floods, and food prices have begun to rise as shortages emerge.
- Incidents of diarrhea, vomiting, measles and malaria increase in several pastoral districts.
- Rates of malnutrition among pastoral households remain higher than average as the dry season peaks.
Exceptionally heavy rains pound most areas of the country
Exceptionally heavy rains were experienced in nearly all areas of the country, fairly consistent with the forecast for the short rains. Rains began during the second dekad of October and covered all areas of the country, except the southern Maasai rangelands and the southeastern marginal agricultural lowlands. However, heavier-than-usual rains covered the entire country during the first half of November. The October and November rains have provided much-needed relief to drought-affected areas and have mitigated the rapidly deteriorating environmental conditions. Some northern pastoral and coastal areas have already exceeded their respective long term means for the entire short-rains season.
Unfortunately, the impacts of the rains have been devastating in some areas, especially along the Coastal Strip, where severe flooding was experienced in Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa districts. Floods were similarly reported in the northern pastoral districts of Turkana, Isiolo, Mandera, Moyale and the lakeshore Kisumu and Busia districts. According to the Kenya Red Cross, 25 persons lost their lives in the floods. In total 80,000 people are affected, nearly 30,000 of them in Kwale District. The Kenya Red Cross has launched an appeal for non-food supplies for the affected population covering water and sanitation, health, seeds, shelter, logistics, monitoring and assessments. The GoK in collaboration with the Kenya Red Cross also plan to airlift food and supplies to those cut off from key supply roads. Although the rains have ended the hydrological drought and should result in marked improvements on both the pastoral and cropping livelihoods, their intensity has been excessive in some areas. Should current flooding continue, more lives and livelihoods could be lost, particularly in the Coast, Lakeshore and some pastoral districts.
The forecast calls for continued heavy rains through December. IGAD's Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) climate outlook suggests that the entire country will receive normal to above normal rains in November and through December. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration/Climate Prediction Centre has also confirmed that the anomalous warming of sea surface temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans is expected to continue, possibly through March, and is indicative of a moderate El Niño.
Figure 1 illustrates the cumulative rainfall across the country, showing unusually heavy rains in areas shaded deep blue and purple. The heaviest rains were reported in pastoral areas that are just coming out of a severe and extended drought. Most of the month's rainfall fell during the last dekad of October through November. Areas that received less than 80 percent of normal rainfall (shaded orange in Figure 1) have also received fairly heavy rainfall during November.
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