Attachments
Key Messages
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The October-December short rains season has been among the driest on record, with cumulative rainfall only 30-60 percent of the long-term average across most areas (Figure 1). Consistent above-average land surface temperatures (0.25-1°C higher than average) since July 2025 have exacerbated dryness. The resulting moisture deficits have driven deterioration of vegetation and severe water shortages in most pastoral areas and hindered crop development in the marginal agricultural areas during a period when seasonal rainfall would typically be replenishing these resources. The January-February dry season will prolong and worsen stress on rangeland and cropping systems until the onset of the March-May long rains.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are ongoing in Mandera, Marsabit, and Turkana and expected to expand to Garissa, Tana River, and Wajir by the end of January and to Samburu and Isiolo by the end of February, persisting through May. Worsening shortages of forage and water during the January to March lean season will accelerate declines in livestock body conditions and productivity. Atypically low herd sizes, coupled with deteriorating body conditions, will continue to limit income amid above-average staple food prices, which in turn will continue to weaken household purchasing capacities and access to food.
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In the marginal agricultural areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Kitui, Makueni, and Lamu from February onwards and to persist through May, driven by atypically low household stocks and limited incomes from crop sales, following a third consecutive below-average season. Households’ reliance on markets will remain atypically high amid limited incomes and above-average staple food prices, limiting purchasing capacities and resulting in food consumption gaps. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist in the rest of the marginal agricultural areas, as the below-average harvest temporarily improves household food stocks and crop sales, but deplete quickly due to low yields.
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Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will persist in Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps and Kalobeyei refugee settlement through May, as recently-increased humanitarian food assistance from WFP enables most refugees to meet minimum food needs, preventing worse outcomes.
This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 31, 2025.