Attachments
As Kenya recovers from historic drought, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist
Key Messages
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In the pastoral areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through January as households recover from the historic drought. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to prevent more severe outcomes in Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, and Mandera during the June to September dry season. While the above-average March to May long rains replenished forage, pasture, and water resources and improved livestock body conditions and sale values, access to milk remains largely below normal due to below-average livestock births given the prior impacts of drought. Furthermore, low herd sizes, high maize prices, and below-normal sources of income continue to limit household purchasing power. More substantial improvement is expected during the forecast above-average 2023 October to December short rains, which coincides with the livestock birthing season following conceptions during the preceding long rains and will provide milk for consumption. However, income from livestock sales will remain limited given the need to restock herds after the drought, and food prices are expected to remain elevated. Additionally, there is a risk that above-average rainfall will lead to incidences of Rift Valley Fever and livestock losses from flash floods.
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In the marginal agricultural areas, the area planted for food crops has been limited by below-average access to inputs during planting in March due to low saved seed stocks, high prices, and limited access to income. Key informants expect a moderately to significantly below-average harvest due to a lack of seeds at planting despite cumulatively average to above-average rainfall. Below-average household income has increased households' reliance on off-own farm income activities such as selling charcoal and firewood and petty trade. Households remain reliant on market purchases for food, but low household income and high food prices are driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with the worst affected areas in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The forecast above average October to December short rains are expected to improve household access to agricultural labor and support crop production, with the harvest of short-cycle crops in December and January likely to improve household food access, but the need to repay past debts and the high cost of living will keep households Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
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FEWS NET price projections indicate that maize and bean prices in monitored markets are expected to follow seasonal trends but remain well above the five-year averages. Prices are expected to remain high due to below-average production over the past two years, high local and regional demand that will raise prices in the source markets of Tanzania and Uganda, high transportation and marketing costs, the depreciation of the KES, and high inflation rates. The high food prices are expected to keep household purchasing power low, particularly for market-dependent households across the country.