Food security to deteriorate as lean season sets in earlier than normal
Poor households in parts of the Northeastern pastoral zone in Isiolo North and the Southeastern pastoral zone in Garissa are likely to move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by September. The March to May long rains, which were 25 to 50 percent of normal in these areas, deteriorated rangeland conditions and significantly lowered livestock productivity. As a result, there will be reduced household income to support food purchases and fewer livestock products for food consumption.
Food insecurity conditions are likely to persist throughout the outlook period, especially in the northeast, northwest, and southeast pastoral areas, and coastal and southeast marginal agricultural areas. The typical recovery of rangeland and cropping conditions during the October to December period is unlikely, as the forecasted La Niña conditions are likely to lead to below-average October to December short rains. The majority of households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
Despite the average to above-average long rains in the high and medium rainfall areas, maize crop production is likely to be only average. A long dry spell from mid-May to mid-June, during a critical period in maize development, caused some plant wilting. While the rains have resumed and are expected to continue through August, some plants were affected by the moisture stress.