Attachments
Key Messages
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In pastoral areas, ongoing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September. The March to May long rains will bring only short-lived improvements in rangeland resources and livestock productivity still recovering from previous poor seasons, while forecasted elevated temperatures are expected to accelerate deterioration from June through September. Below-average herd sizes, atypical livestock migration, and deteriorating body conditions will further restrict household milk availability and consumption, and income. Meanwhile, staple food prices are projected to remain near or above average. With incomes constrained, households will struggle to access food and further deplete livelihood assets amid use of unsustainable coping strategies.
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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in the marginal agricultural areas of Lamu, Kitui, Makueni, and Meru (Meru North) through May, as below-average short rains harvests drive households to engage in unsustainable use of livelihood assets to meet minimum food needs. From June, the long rains harvests will replenish household food stocks, reduce market dependency, and improve agricultural labor and crop sales income, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In the remaining marginal agricultural areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist from February through September as incomes and the long rains harvest will support minimally adequate food consumption, although households will continue to rely on coping strategies to meet non-food needs.
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Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes will persist in Dadaab, Kakuma, and Kalobeyei refugee camps through September due to lack of own production and limited income. Food assistance for refugees has significantly declined and cannot mitigate consumption gaps for most households.
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FEWS NET estimates 4.0-4.99 million people will be in need of humanitarian food assistance between February and September 2026, with needs expected to peak between March and April. The pastoral regions and marginal agricultural areas of Kitui, Lamu, Makueni, and Meru (Meru North) are of highest concern.
The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 20, 2026.