Kenya + 1 more

Kenya Food Security Outlook February to June 2012


Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurity likely to continue in pastoral areas

Key messages

  • The gradual improvement in pastoral food security across the north, northwest, northeast pastoral and parts of the southern Maasai rangelands, following significantly above-average October-December 2011 short rains, is starting to slow. However, household food consumption is stable due to improved availability of milk, enhanced terms of trade, and ongoing interventions. Nutrition levels are improving and the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition is 10-40 percent below the five-year average for January, with the exception of Mandera district where dengue fever is reported. The majority of households are classified in the Stressed or Crisis phase of food insecurity. Given the forecast for below-average and poorly distributed March-May 2012 long rains, further improvements in pastoral food security are not expected. The majority of households will remain in either the Stressed or Crisis phase of food insecurity through June 2012.

  • The majority of households in the southeast marginal agricultural zone are likely to revert to previous food insecurity levels as food stocks are expected to deplete two months early, in April, due to heightened sales of the below-average short rains harvests. If the forecast for a poor long rains season holds, this would be the second successive poor season.
    The majority of poor and very poor households in the southeast will be in Stressed or Crisis levels of food insecurity through the Outlook period.

  • Limited access by humanitarian organizations, due to the volatile security situation, coupled with inadequate funding is restricting the scale of service delivery in the Dadaab refugee camps. In addition, resource shortfalls are likely to occur due to the rising number of refugees in Kakuma after arrivals from South Sudan. Even though arriving refugees are being provided with food and water, their food security situation is likely to remain precarious due to prolonged stay in an overcrowded reception center because of inadequate shelter facilities