Delay in the onset of the long rains in the southeast raises concerns
Following a drier than normal January?March period in Kenya's southeastern marginal agricultural lowlands, the onset of the much?anticipated 2009 long rains is already one dekad late (Figure 1). In this area, the long?rains tend to be unreliable and production during this period accounts for only 30 percent of annual cereal production. However, this production is an important buffer against food insecurity for households during the July?September period. Good performance of the long?rains season is particularly important this year because households in this region are already facing a critical decline in food security following a failure of the 2008/09 short rains. Nearly 1 million persons – 32 percent of the population – are currently estimated to be highly food insecure in the marginal agricultural districts of Kitui, Machakos, Makueni, Mbeere, Mwingi, and Tharaka. The worst affected areas are Mwingi and Kitui Districts, where an estimated 56 and 44 percent of the population, respectively, are classified as highly food insecure. The next major harvest is not expected until March 2010 and food security could deteriorate to emergency levels, with a subsequent rise in the size of the population in need of assistance, should the long rains perform poorly and if recommended interventions are not implemented quickly.
Current food insecurity follows a succession of poor or mediocre seasons since March 2007 that have resulted in a series of below?average harvests, culminating in a near?total crop failure during the recently concluded 2008/09 short?rains season. This failure has been compounded by a precipitous rise in food and non?food prices that began in January 2008 and has continued into 2009. In addition, tightened food supplies across the country, due to reduced domestic production and a decline in cross?border maize imports, has reduced food availability in local markets. The Arid Lands and Resource Management Project has reported that food prices across the region are 80?120 percent of normal, while livestock prices are 25 percent lower than the five?year average. Therefore, cattle/maize terms of trade, a key indicator of food access in this area, have severely eroded. Finally, water scarcity and the increase in its price, from Ksh. 20/liter to Ksh. 60/liter, have led to a reduction in use, and in the last week, cholera cases have been reported in 16 districts.