A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Heavy rains have been recorded in many parts of the country from the onset of the October - November - December (OND) rainy season. The rains have been driven by the El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and their distribution closely matches the El Niño forecasts that had been given by Kenya Meteorological Services (KMS) and by the IGAD Climate Predictions and Application Centre, in the second and third quarters of 2015. It is expected that flooding will continue through December 2015 and into early January in Western Kenya (due to overflow of Rivers Nyando, and Nzoia), and in the counties of Garissa, Tana River and Kilifi (mainly due to heavy downpour in the Mount Kenya Region, which forms the catchment zone for the River Tana).
The ongoing rains have led to a host of problems, including flooding (rivers bursting their banks in Garissa, Tana River, Migori, Busia and Homa Bay), flash floods (Narok), landslides/mudslides (Mt.
Elgon, Kisii, West Pokot and Narok) road traffic accidents (Turkana, Homa Bay, and Nairobi) and lightning strikes (Kisii). Together, it has resulted in 112 deaths and 73 recorded injuries. In total, 40,121 Households (HHs) (approximately 240,726 people) have been affected, including a total of 17,254 HHs (approximately 103,524 people) who have been displaced. It has also been reported that approximately 4,100 head of cattle were washed away by the flood waters, further exposing the already displaced families to loss of livelihoods and household income. Other effects of the rains countrywide include varied damage to at least 16 schools, destruction of farmlands in Mt. Elgon, Kirinyaga, Narok, Busia, Kisumu, Tana River, Trans Nzoia, Busia, and Bungoma counties. Infrastructural damages have also been reported (damage to roads and bridges) in parts of Tana River, Marsabit, Isiolo, Mandera, Wajir, Nandi and Machakos counties.