Kenya El Niño Situation Report #1: 02 December 2015

Originally published



· Heavy rains received in most of Kenya with the exception of northcentral Kenya where pockets of strong moisture deficits were reported most of November.

· Torrentially heavy rainfall is forecasted over the next weeks, thus increasing the risk of flooding and river inundation.

· WFP is responding to food needs in Garissa and Tana River counties, and providing direct logistics capacity support in five counties.

In numbers

Up to 2 million people may get affected countrywide (not all will require assistance)

411,000 flood-people expected to be assisted by WFP

160,000 provisional estimates of people already affected and in need of food assistance in two counties

Funding Update

USD 2.3 million received to preposition food in the refugee camps

USD 5.7 million received from internal advance mechanisms for preparedness actions in the ASAL

Situation Update

The 2015 short rains season (usually October to December) fully established in November in Kenya.

The rains started earlier than normal in many parts of the country. However, a delayed start was reported in Kitui, Makueni, Marsabit and Samburu counties; with northcentral Kenya having pockets of strong moisture deficits most of November.

Heavy rainfall received in western, parts of the Rift Valley, central highlands, southeastern lowlands and the coastal region. While the El Niño effects have not reached the scale predicted, some households have been displaced by floodwaters, lives and livelihoods lost, and roads rendered impassable temporarily. In the arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL), Garissa and Tana River are more affected. Other areas with reported localised displacements or impassable roads (as of 02 December) include: parts of Isiolo, Kitui, Mandera, Marsabit, Samburu, Taita Taveta and Wajir.

The weather forecast suggests that torrential rainfall will persist over most of Kenya. This elevates the risk for localized flooding and river inundation through the week ending 06 December. The risk of hydro-electric power generation dams being opened and causing flooding downstream is also high.