A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
Due to poor performance of the long rains in March-April-May 2016, pastoral and marginal farming communities in the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of the country are experiencing moderate to severe drought. According to the Kenya Food Security Steering Group Joint Long Rains assessment report (KFSSG LRA), a total of 1,254,600 people mainly from pastoral (750,900) and marginal agricultural areas (503,700) in 19 ASAL counties are acutely food insecure, as they were directly affected by poor rains, as well as other existing and emerging vulnerabilities and require immediate food assistance. This is an increase of 500,000 more people in need compared to estimates from the February 2016, short rains assessment.
The UNICEF Kenya Nutrition Situation overview report of October 2016, indicates that the rates of malnutrition are critical, above 20 per cent in 4 counties (Turkana, East Pokot in Baringo, Mandera and Marsabit), extremely critical at 30.3 per cent in Turkana North and 15 per cent in West Pokot. An additional 4 counties (Samburu, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir) have serious acute malnutrition levels (10-14 per cent). Estimated malnutrition caseloads in ASALs is 294,300 children under 5 years (60,600 under Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and 233,700 under Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM). Vulnerable pregnant and lactating mothers comprise 29,400 people.
The food security situation is likely to deteriorate further in these areas as predicted by various climate prediction institutions, amongst others, IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), FEWSNET, Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). During October-November-December 2016 season, it is expected that most parts of the country will experience depressed rainfall that will also be poorly distributed both in time and space. It is reported that the predicted La Nina this year will most likely impact the areas affected by the El Nino of 2014/2015 and more. These areas include, North Eastern counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo); Coast region counties (Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, Tana River, Taita Taveta); Central Kenya counties (Kiambu Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a, Nyandarua), Nairobi County, Central and North Rift, North Western, Eastern Kenya counties (Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Embu, Tharaka, Isiolo, Marsabit).
Current situation as indicated in the FEWSNET November 2016 food security outlook report, and as predicted by the Kenya Meteorological departments most parts of Western, Rift valley and central parts of the country have received adequate October-November-December short rains whilst in the South Eastern, coast and Northern parts of the country theses rains have had an extremely poor start and performance leading to extension of the dry lean season that usually lasts from August to October. This has negatively impacted crop and rangeland conditions in the mentioned areas. The result is that the number of counties in the Alarm drought phase has risen to 6 according to assessments by National Drought Management Authority (Garissa, Mandera, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu, and Marsabit) while 10 others are at Alert Phase (Kajiado, Laikipia, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Samburu, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Turkana and Wajir) The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) allocated CHF 279,632 from the Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) on 23 November 2016, as a loan to support the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) respond to the needs of the affected population. The DREF loan will initially support affected persons in Garissa and Tana River counties which are experiencing worsening food insecurity trends. The overall Appeal is intended to support affected population in Garissa, Tana River, Makueni, Kilifi and Kwale counties, with health and nutrition services; water, sanitation and hygiene promotion activities; and food security and livelihoods over a period of three months.
This appeal has not received any funding to date and IFRC, on behalf of the Kenya Red Cross, would like to encourage partners to consider supporting the Appeal to enable KRCS provide assistance to the targeted beneficiaries through the planned activities as detailed in the Emergency Plan of Action (EPoA).