A. Situation analysis
Description of the disaster
The 2018 October–November–December (OND) short rains season was characterized by poor rainfall performance in many parts of the country, leading to below-average crop performance and inadequate replenishment of rangeland resources in rainfall-deficit areas. Real time observations showed that rains in the OND season had a late start and early cessation, with long dry spells experienced in many places. Many areas received below average rainfall with most Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) counties receiving depressed (below normal) rainfall, except for counties such as Makueni, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Embu (Mbeere) and Laikipia, which received near normal rainfall. Counties in Western, South Eastern and Coastal regions of Kenya received average rainfall. This resulted in overall unfavourable conditions for rain-fed agriculture, surface and ground water storage recharge and pasture regeneration.
According to National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) bulletin of January 2019, nine (9) counties (Wajir, Garissa, Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo, Kitui and Tharaka Nithi) are at the alert3 phase of drought (IPC 2 equivalent) with four (4) counties (Mandera, West Pokot, Laikipia, and Kilifi) in the Normal (IPC 1 equivalent) but with worsening situation. Out of the nine counties at IPC 2, five (5) are classified as worsening. With the cessation of the short rains, there is warning of a decline in food, water and pasture in a number of counties.