Attachments
Summary of the early action protocol
The IFRC Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) has approved a total of CHF 499,199 for the Kenya Red Cross. The approved amount consists of an allocation of CHF 135,978 for readiness and pre-positioning and CHF 363,222 allocated to implement early actions once the defined triggers are met.
Allocations are made from the Anticipatory Pillar of the DREF, under the DREF appeal code MDR00001. Unearmarked contributions to the DREF are encouraged to guarantee enough funding is available for the Early Action Protocols being developed.
This Early Action Protocol (EAP) is a tool to guide the timely and effective implementation of early actions. These actions are informed by specific weather or climate forecasts and biophysical indicators predicting and/or indicating drought events. If such events materialise and no proper actions are in place, they have a high likelihood of generating a humanitarian crisis. Humanitarian crises can be avoided or minimised by the joint and timely action of the Government of Kenya at National and County level, communities at risk, stakeholders including the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), United Nations Agencies, Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) and Development Partners. This EAP has been designed by KRCS in collaboration with the National Forecast-based Financing Technical Working Group (TWG) composed of key actors in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and disaster management (DM). All the stakeholders involved in this plan are members of the TWG and have a key role during the preparation and activation of EAP.
The climate in Kenya ranges from tropical (in the coastal region) to arid (in the mountain regions). There are two main rainy seasons; the March-April-May (MAM) “long rains” season and the October-November-December (OND) “short rains” season. The occurrence of droughts in Kenya is not a rare event, since 80% of Kenya is composed of arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) with annual rainfall ranging from 200 to 500 mm resulting in periodical droughts that are part of the climate system. In the past, communities were able to cope with the periodic droughts and had developed resilience to drought events. However, local observers report that an intensification in both the length and severity of these events has been observed in the last few decades. This perception is confirmed by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) analysis that monitored and mapped rainfall trends over 50 years between 1960 and 2009 revealing that “long rains in central Kenya have declined by more than 100 millimetres since the mid-1970s” (FEWSNET 2010). Columbia University - International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) data also affirms this decline in the long rains. Haile et al. (2019) reports that severe droughts have already hit the country (e.g. 2017) and over the recent years have become more frequent, long lasting and more severe.
The impacts of drought are felt hardest in the agricultural sector which is the backbone of Kenya’s economy. Agriculture contributes to food security, employment and economic development of the country (e.g., ROK, 2010). According to UNDP (2012), the sector contributes 26% directly to the annual GDP and 26% indirectly through industries that feed from the sector such as wholesale, retail sales, agro-based manufacturing and transport. Further, it contributes 65% to total exports from the country and 16% to formal employment. The sector employs about 80% of the rural population (World Bank; CIAT. 2015) who rely on small-scale (3ha units) subsistence farming, livestock rearing and fishing (IFAD 2019).
With regards to historical drought impacts recorded in Kenya between 1973 and 2022, food insecurity, loss of livelihood, crop failure, disease outbreak, disruption of education, water scarcity, increased cattle rustling, and conflicts are the most reported impacts (Figure 1). The magnitude of these impacts have been found to vary across different counties in Kenya.
From the analysis, high drought risk was in the Northern Kenya Counties of Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, West pokot, Wajir, Mandera and Tana River. Other Counties in eastern and southern Kenya with relatively high risk include Narok, Makueni and Kwale.