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Kenya is facing a rapidly escalating drought emergency following the near total failure of the October–December 2025 short rains, which delivered only 30–60% of average rainfall in most areas and produced the driest season on record since 1981 in parts of the east. The situation continues to intensify into the month of January 2026 with conditions in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands deteriorating following the poor performance of short rains and high temperatures. This compounded earlier poor seasons, severely straining crops, rangelands, and water sources, while temperatures 1–2°C above normal have intensified drying.
According to NDMA, 23 counties are experiencing drought stress. Nine counties including Wajir, Garissa, Kilifi,
Marsabit, Kitui, Kwale, Kajiado, Isiolo, and Tana River are in the “Alert” phase, and Mandera remains in the critical “Alarm” phase. Even counties classified as “Normal,” such as Samburu, Turkana, Nyeri, Laikipia, and Meru, show worsening conditions.
Food insecurity has sharply increased, with 2.1–2.5 million people already facing hunger. Government assessments indicate that affected communities will require sustained food, nutrition, water, health, and livestock support through at least March–May 2026. Pastoral areas are particularly hard hit, with poor pasture regeneration, limited water recharge, and declining livestock productivity driving many households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Water scarcity is deepening across northern and eastern Kenya, where many water points are now “near-dry” or in “alert” status. Families are traveling longer distances for water, and livestock migrations in search of pasture are increasing, raising the risk of conflict in hotspot counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Baringo, Narok and Tana River.
There is a nutritional risk anticipated in elevate the acute malnutrition especially for under-fives, lactating and pregnant women’s living in these conditions. There is still need to scale up screening, continuous referrals and integrated health outreaches to the population in the high-risk counties Government and humanitarian partners have stepped up emergency responses through food distribution, water trucking, nutrition screening, and livestock offtake, alongside longer-term resilience measures such as irrigation expansion. High-level national meetings have outlined a mitigation roadmap, with calls from legislators to declare the drought a national disaster.