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Extremely Critical acute malnutrition (IPC AMN Phase 5) is confirmed in Mandera, North Horr/Chalbi (Marsabit), and Turkana South and East in Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs). Laisamis is projected to deteriorate to IPC AMN Phase 5 by March-June 2026. IPC AMN Phase 5—the most severe and life-threatening level of acute malnutrition—means at least one in three children is acutely malnourished, with a very high risk of death, amid widespread outbreaks of dysentery, cholera, acute watery diarrhoea, and measles.
At the same time, acute food insecurity has sharply worsened, with more than 3.3 million people in the ASALs and 429,000 refugees currently in IPC AFI Phase 3 or above. This is projected to deteriorate further through June 2026 as climatic shocks continue.
These severe outcomes are driven by below average and erratic October–December 2025 rains, which caused widespread crop failure, poor pasture regeneration, and inadequate recovery of water sources. The refugee population particularly is facing sharp reductions in humanitarian assistance, limited livelihood options, and high reliance on costly markets. Without a significant increase in food, non-food, and livelihood support, conditions are expected to remain critical.