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CRISIS IMPACT OVERVIEW
According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña conditions are present and expected to persist until February 2026 (NOAA 24/11/2025). The combination of La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate phenomenon driven by differences in sea surface temperatures across the Indian Ocean, typically suppresses rainfall in the Horn of Africa between October– December, heightening the risk of drought (ICPAC 27/06/2025 ; FEWS NET accessed 18/11/2025). In Kenya, La Niña is forecast to bring below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures through December and likely into the first quarter of 2026. These conditions are expected to intensify the current drought, with impacts already observed in counties including Turkana and Mandera (FEWS NET 31/11/2025; IPC 08/09/2025). The anticipated below-average rainfall associated with La Niña will be a continuation of failed rainy seasons (with below-average rainfall experienced) since the first quarter of 2024 (IFRC 22/04/2025). Until January 2026, Mandera, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir are projected to face heightened climate stress, with below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures expected to affect water sources and result in less pasture for grazing, lower yields, fewer crops for consumption, and disrupted livelihood resilience (ICPAC accessed 13/11/2025 a; KNA 28/08/2025; The Star 10/09/2025). At the same time, at least 20% of the populations of Mandera, Tana River, Turkana, and Wajir counties are projected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity because of the impact of the anticipated drought to the end of the year and into the first quarter of 2026 (IPC 08/09/2025). The majority (over 80%) of Kenya is classified to feature arid or semi-arid land (ASAL), with Turkana falling within the arid zone and Mandera, Tana River, and Wajir counties categorised as semi-arid (IPC 08/09/2025; ADA 2024; NDMA 13/03/2024). These counties have experienced chronic challenges, including poverty, limited basic services, and frequent climate shocks, such as droughts and floods, in recent years (IFRC 27/10/2025; UNCCD accessed 12/11/2025). As a result, communities have reduced coping capacity to manage and recover from the anticipated drought. Map: Projected rainfall performance and distribution of IPC 3+ food insecurity across Kenya, October–December 2025 Source: ACAPS using IPC (08/09/2025); FEWS NET (accessed 20/11/2025)