How severe, how many and when: In July 2019, estimated 2.6 Million people (19% of the population in ASAL) are classified in IPC phase 3 and/or worse acute food insecurity.
Comparing to 2018 same period, around 700,000 people were classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The deterioration and severity of food insecurity was mainly attributed to performance of the seasonal rainfall. In the projection period of August to October 2019, the population in crisis and above is expected to increase from 2.6 million people to about 3.1 million people, while the population in Emergency possibly will increase from 298,000 to 357,000.
Where and who: In July 2019, while almost all the counties have populations in either Crisis or Emergency, majority of these populations are in Turkana, Mandera, Baringo Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Tana river in the predominant pastoral livelihoods and Kitui, Makueni, Kilifi, Meru North in the marginal agricultural and agro pastoral livelihoods. During the projection period of August to October 2019, the geographic distribution for these numbers are in Turkana, Mandera, Baringo Wajir, Garissa, Marsabit and Tana river in the predominant pastoral livelihoods and Kitui, Makueni, Kilifi, Meru North in the marginal agricultural and agro pastoral livelihoods, with significant numbers are expected in Isiolo, Tharaka and Samburu.
Why: The main driver of food insecurity was the poor long rains season which was a second consecutive season. Poor rainfall coupled with high land surface temperatures in many areas led to poor crop and livestock production and rapid deterioration of rangeland resources. The scarcity of rangeland resources triggered an earlier-than-normal livestock migration into dry season grazing areas and also into atypical grazing areas such as game parks and reserves, which resulted in resource-based conflicts. These led to minor livestock losses, displacement and death. There was also an outbreak of human diseases among them an outbreak of Kalazaar disease in the northern pastoral areas as well as cholera. Livestock diseases were also prevalent in both the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas were Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Contagious Caprine Pleuro-pneumonia (CCPP), Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR),
Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) and Heart Water.