Food insecurity persists in the northeastern pastoral areas and the southeastern cropping lowlands
With the 2005 long-rains season is over in all pastoral areas, it is now evident that the outcome of the season has varied widely across the northwestern as compared to the northeast. (See Figure 1). While the long-rains were timely and heavier than normal in most of the northwestern districts, the rains began late and were light and poorly distributed in the northeast. In the northeastern pastoral districts including Garissa, Wajir, Tana River and Isiolo Districts, large areas of poor rainfall are interspersed with a few areas of good rains.
Livestock began trekking for water, pasture and browse two months earlier than normal in the northeastern districts, traveling long distances in June. Figure 2 shows some of the pastoralists’ movements that began in May. Long treks have invariably led to deterioration in the livestock body condition and drop in livestock prices by 5-10 percent. Subsequently, pastoral terms of trade are likely to continue in a downward trend unless the current phase of the emergency operation (EMOP) is continued after July.
Food insecurity has deteriorated in the northeast. Less than half of the children have access to milk, even in the middle of the lambing and kidding period. The rates of child malnutrition, measured using Middle Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC), increased from 15 percent in May to 18 percent in June in Garissa District. However, according to the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP), the alarming rate of child malnutrition reported in May in Mandera District has declined significantly, from 36 percent to 26 percent in June. The decline is attributed to a reduction in malaria and diarrheal diseases following the recession of the flooded Daua River. A MUAC rate of 33 percent is considered serious. However, the reported integration of refugees from Gedo in Somalia into pastoral households in Mandera District could distort the results of any food security analysis. Preliminary reports from the assessment teams indicate further improvements in the district during July.
Current relief food distributions complemented by non-food interventions are expected to continue through the critical period, from August through December, in the northeastern pastoral areas.
In addition, the key feature of the 2005 long-rains season is the uneven distribution of the rains, even within districts. This has provided significant migration options to the worst affected pastoralists, who are now able to migrate to a number of wet areas often within the same district.
Nearly 70 women, children and men were killed indiscriminately in attacks by heavily armed raiders in the northern pastoral village of Turbi in Marsabit District. Long-standing clan tensions over the district boundary, access to resources and revenge for past raids culminated in this vicious attack. The GoK, the UN and NGOs are currently providing food and shelter to affected households. Unfortunately, such catastrophic raids are likely to continue unless underlying causes are addressed and an effective conflict mitigation mechanism is implemented.
Food insecurity among the marginal agricultural households of Eastern Province, particularly in Kitui and Makueni districts has deteriorated. Both districts experienced a near-total crop failure during the 2005 longrains season. Although the long rains season is the minor season in the southeast, the critical October- December 2004 short-rains season was also poor, and the next important harvest is not anticipated until February 2006. While nutrition assessments seem to suggest that the rates of global acute malnutrition are low, ranging between 5-8 percent, food prices are 20-35 percent higher than normal, undermining the purchasing power of the poorest households. Water scarcity has become a critical problem, and livestock are trekking greater distances. Ongoing relief food and non-food distributions are expected to continue through the hunger period to alleviate the deterioration in food security.
In contrast, most of the northwestern pastoral districts including Turkana, Marsabit, West Pokot, Baringo, Kajiado, Narok and Samburu have had a good season. After livestock returned to wet-season grazing areas, pastoral households in the northwest reported improvements in food security; the body condition and price of livestock improved as did household milk availability. A steady decline in rates of child malnutrition was evident through June, dropping from their high levels in October 2004. Northwestern pastoralists expect that grazing resources should be sufficient to last through the dry season. However, poor conditions in neighboring pastoral areas could cause resources to deplete faster than normal as pastoralists from these areas migrate in search of pasture.
In both the pastoral and cropping areas, one poor season often undermines gains from previous seasons, suggesting that a comprehensive strategy for addressing chronic food insecurity is required.