SUMMARY
The 2002 long rains, characterized by wide variability in its spatial and temporal distribution, concluded during June in all areas of the country outside the key grain surplus areas of western Kenya.
The 2002 rainfall period was shorter than normal due to the late season onset in all arable areas outside Nyanza and Western Province. Production prospects have been adjusted downward to reflect expected yield losses.
Food security prospects for most pastoralists have improved significantly but areas of serious concern include parts of Tana River District, Mandera District, Moyale District, eastern parts of Marsabit District and the agropastoral districts of West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo.
Rising maize prices are moving closer to average levels, reflecting the normal seasonal trend and mediocre harvest prospects.
WFP’s Emergency Operation (EMOP) food constraints have been eased considerably through pledges from the United States Government and WFPRome.
Nevertheless, a 17,800 MT shortfall remains, putting Food for Work activities in seven districts on hold.
1. Food Security Conditions and Prospects
Food security conditions were fair during June for most areas outside a few pastoral, agropastoral and some marginal agricultural districts. Favorable harvests in both the long and the short-rains of 2001/02 have sustained improved food availability in the key surplus and deficit growing areas. Although food prices have increased significantly over the past three months, current prices still remain lower than average prices at comparable periods.
However, food security conditions are now worrisome, following very poor rains in 2002, among the agropastoralists in West Pokot, Marakwet, Baringo and Kajiado Districts in the Rift Valley Province and among the marginal agricultural farm households in Coast Province districts of Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi and Malindi and Eastern Province districts of Kitui and Makueni. The coastal districts, in particular, faced a similarly poor long-rains season during 2001, further straining the purchasing capacities of these drought-affected households.
The food security outlook for pastoralists in most areas outside parts of Tana River District, Mandera District, Moyale District, eastern parts of Marsabit District and the agropastoral districts of West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo is promising, following good rains through most of the 2002 long-rains season. Increased kidding and lambing have already improved milk availability.
With the exception of Western and Nyanza Provinces, the food security outlook in the cropping areas is less certain. The 2002 long-rains have apparently ceased at a time when a significant proportion of the crop is at critical development stages. Yields will likely be far lower than initially anticipated, unless uncharacteristically late rains resume in July.
2. National Trends
2.1 Agroclimatic Conditions
The 2002 long rains have concluded in most areas of the country, except the key grain-producing districts situated in the central portion of the Rift Valley Province. The distinguishing feature of the long-rains season has been its wide variability in onset, intensity, the spatial and temporal distribution.
Rainfall began unseasonably early during the first week of March in several areas of the country, including the central and southeastern cropping districts and in some few pastoral districts of northeastern Kenya. These brief early rains were followed by an unusual dry spell that lasted the rest of the month in all areas of the country. April was characterized by widespread and unusually heavy rains, except in the southeastern marginal agricultural and parts of the western agropastoral areas. This heavy rainfall caused flooding in several eastern pastoral districts as well as in the districts fronting Lake Victoria.
May rainfall was not as heavy as and generally better distributed than April rainfall. The 2002 rainfall tailed off in most areas outside the western districts toward the first week of June. The late start and the early end of the long-rains season is of grave concern, particularly in the cropping areas. Hopes that the 2002 long-rains season would extend through June to compensate for the late onset were disappointed, yet a significant proportion of the crop is still at critical water-dependent development stages. The most crucial areas are situated in Eastern, Central and Coast Provinces.
Areas of exceptionally poor rains during the 2002 long-rains are now being monitored closely by food security analysts in government and non-governmental sectors both at the district and national levels. These include all the southeastern coastal marginal agricultural districts as well as the Eastern Province districts of Kitui, Makueni and parts of Machakos. The agropastoral districts of West Pokot, southern Kajiado, Baringo, Koibatek and Marakwet are also being monitored closely. Figure 1 illustrates the rainfall pattern in the one of the worst affected areas situated in Taita Taveta, contrasted with fairly good rainfall in Garissa in Figure 2. The impact of the poor 2001 long and short rains in Taita Taveta was worsened by the equally poor 2002 long rains.
2.2 Crop Production
Earlier optimism for favorable crop production, based on the Drought Monitoring Center’s favorable long-rains forecast for March-May 2002, has been dampened by fairly erratic actual rainfall. Although cumulative rainfall approximates or exceeds normal levels in significant areas, the distribution of rains and the short season have been especially detrimental to crop production prospects in key growing areas. The shortened rainfall period has been especially detrimental to crop production prospects. Farmers in the Rift Valley Province who planted their crop during the actual start of the season in early April through May are expected to suffer significant yield losses due to the generally erratic rainfall pattern, though the impact on output is less clear due to the extended nature of the cropping season in these key-grain producing districts. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoARD) has already adjusted their output projection for the 2002 long-rains season to reflect the poor rainfall.
However, the maize crop in Western and Nyanza Provinces, with the exception of the flooded lakeshore areas is doing well and normal to above-normal output is expected in these areas. In addition, a favorable harvest is widely anticipated for the few early-planting farmers in Central, Eastern and Rift Valley Provinces. The MoARD anticipates that 1.89 million MT of maize should be harvested during the 2002 long-rains season, well below the 1991-2000 long-rains average of 2.18 million MT and the 2001 long rains production of 2.32 million MT. This fall in output is attributed to anticipated poor production in all areas except in Nyanza and Western Provinces.
The ultimate impact of the reduced long-rains output during 2002/03 (July-June) is still unclear since the cumulative national domestic maize supply is based on several unknowns, including: difficult-to-quantify on-farm stocks, possible exports of National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) stocks, future cross-border trading, and the 2002/03 short-rains output that is too early to project. Nevertheless, millers have indicated that it is becoming increasingly difficult to buy economic quantities of maize at the farm-gate level, even in key growing areas.
2.3. Commodity Prices
Maize prices have continued rising in key reference markets across the country, moving closer to the long-term average. The continued rise in prices from early May is consistent with the usual seasonal pattern. Prices tend to rise through June, and then stabilize or decrease in July/August when the first long-rains harvests begin. In Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu, prices range between Ksh. 1,000 and Ksh 1,100 per 90 kg sack, while in the grain-basket districts of the Rift Valley prices range between Ksh. 700 and Ksh. 800.
There are mixed price patterns on the cereal markets in the marginal, agro-pastoral and pastoral areas. In Samburu, maize and posho (coarsely milled maize meal) prices have started to increase, after a long downward trend since January 2001. In Tana River, there are no clear trends in maize prices: prices have been extremely variable since mid-2001. In Isiolo, prices have strengthened on the main markets. In general, maize and posho prices in the northern pastoral areas are at least 30 percent higher than the national average. With the reductions in general food distribution, there is no evidence of significant sales of food aid maize on these markets. WFP data from five pastoral divisions of Turkana, Mandera, Marsabit, Laikipia and Moyale Districts suggest that most of the maize on the market is now being brought in from elsewhere, by traders.
The forces of supply and demand have come into play as small-scale farmers have disposed of most of their on farm stocks. In Eastern Province districts farmers have sold a large part of their produce due to the larger-grain borer menace, which has made it risky to store their grain. Continued exports to Southern Africa by NCPB and continued local purchases by WFP for its operations have been advantageous to Kenyan producers and have considerably improved maize prices.
The upward trend of maize prices, expected to continue through most of July and early August, could be reversed depending on the outcome of the long-rains harvests that will commence in the early harvest districts of Western and Rift Valley Provinces. Bountiful harvests are likely to drive prices down.
2.4. Pastoral Food Security
Although the 2002 long rains in the pastoral districts were characterized by significant variability, there has been a substantial improvement in several of the previously drought-affected districts.
Areas of continuing concern include the southern parts of Tana River District, Mandera District, Moyale District, the eastern parts of Marsabit District and the agropastoral districts of West Pokot, Koibatek, Marakwet and Baringo. Cumulative rainfall has been well below average during the key 2002 long-rains season. Poor rainfall in these districts has stalled the tentative recovery that began during October 2001. In these areas livestock body conditions, calving rates and milk availability have unseasonably declined.
In most other pastoral districts, availability of water, pasture and browse has remained favorable through June, with the usual local exceptions. The cumulative benefits of the March to early June rainfall translated into improved livestock body conditions and generally increased livestock prices during May 2001-May 2002 - see Figure 3. These rising livestock prices reflect the unwillingness of pastoralists to sell their livestock and their desire to once more rebuild their herds. Nevertheless, rising livestock prices are not consistent across pastoral markets. Price trends continue to be determined by disease quarantines such as in Samburu District (pushing prices down), the influx of livestock from neighboring Somalia (also pushing prices down) and the degree of market access, a function of the trade infrastructure and security (possibly offsetting effects).
As the grazing fundamentals - water, pasture and browse - decline in the wet-season grazing areas, pastoralists are expected to move to their traditional dry season grazing areas, mostly within the district. However, unusually early movements of livestock from West Pokot District into Uganda were already reported in June in response to exceptionally poor local rainfall during the 2002 long-rains season.
During June, the incidents of livestock raiding declined markedly, though substantial areas of favorable water, pasture and browse such as in southern Turkana District remain inaccessible to pastoralists due to continuing unresolved tensions. The FEWS NET conflict vulnerability team initialized substantive dialogue among GoK officials, key NGOs and community-based organizations in Turkana District in June and July. This is with a view to warning about possible conflict (based on key indicators) so it can be averted with the active help of community and other leaders. Livestock banditry, a recurring feature of the pastoral production system, is made more dangerous by the proliferation of modern weapons.
The rates of child malnutrition continue their downward trend in the pastoral districts of Samburu, Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana and Isiolo. Of serious concern are worrisome rates of child malnutrition in localized areas of the pastoral districts of Mandera and Turkana Districts, even during on-going general and supplementary feeding interventions. UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, in close collaboration with resident NGOs, are investigating the possible causes of these unusually high malnutrition rates and formulating alternative strategies to combat malnutrition on a sustained basis.
3. On-going National Level Interventions
3.1. Emergency Operation for Drought-Affected People
The WFP Emergency Operation has received new pledges of 10,000 MT of wheat and 2,500 MT of Corn Soya Blend from the US government. In addition, $2 million has been released from WFP headquarters in Rome for the local purchase of 5,840 MT of maize. These new resources will help improve the precarious pipeline situation, which still has a shortfall of 17,800 MT of food through the end of October. Needs may be revised downward in light of the 2002 long rains season.
As a result of these pipeline constraints, commitment to pay beneficiaries of Food-For-Work can only be given to participants in six districts. Food-for-Work activities have been put on hold in seven other districts.
Food distributions for the second term on the Expanded School Feeding Program have begun in districts. Beneficiaries amounting to well over 1.3 million beneficiaries in 4,400 schools have been targeted as a means to encourage school-age children to keep learning. A total of 9,428 MT of commodities is earmarked for distribution to beneficiaries.
OXFAM GB’s Cash-for-Work Recovery Program
Oxfam GB ran a successful Cash-for-Work (CfW) rehabilitation program during the El Niño floods of 1998 in Wajir. To build on this success a CfW program was started in Turkana and Wajir in September 2001, designed to complement the current relief program. The objective of CfW is to provide essential public services to communities while helping pastoral households to build up their asset base and earn enough to meet their basic needs.
Appropriate and technically viable work projects that could benefit the wider community were selected after a needs assessment was carried out. Projects were selected based on analysis by Oxfam staff in cooperation with communities and other stakeholders. The CfW has been used on projects related to water (desilting pans, protecting wells, and constructing storage tanks) and hygiene and health promotion (digging refuse pits, cleaning towns, and clearing roads). Other activities for which CfW resources have been used include the rehabilitation of the Wajir slaughterhouse, the manufacture/purchase/provision of materials for low-cost housing and the provision of livestock drugs to Pastoral Associations.
Implementation of the projects have been achieved through technical expertise of Oxfam GB staff and various institutions such as women groups, Pastoral Associations, local NGOs and schools. Program participants were selected through participatory mechanisms using existing community institutions or relief committees. The household is the beneficiary unit.
3.2. The Refugee Operation
The Refugee Operation still faces a resource shortfall of over 4,000 MT of food until the end of 2002. With the resources that are currently available for July to December 2002, WFP will be able to meet only 88 percent of the refugees' food needs. Without additional deliveries, by January 2003 this will drop to 67 percent and by February to 35 percent. Further pledges are urgently needed to avoid a deepening food crisis among the refugees.
In an attempt to offset further pipeline shortfalls, the Refugee Operation will use a contribution of $700,000 from the government of Sweden to purchase 829 MT of vegetable oil and 187 MT of salt locally.
USAID FEWS NET- KENYA
Telephone: (254-2) 350523/4/5
E-mail: "Nancy Mutunga"<nmutunga@fews.net>
The World Food Program/VAM
Telephone: (254-2) 622687
E-mail: "Ben Watkins"<Ben.Watkins@wfp.org>