Poor October - December Rains Threaten Pastoral and Agropastoral Areas in Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti and Ethiopia
The food security situation among the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in the GHA remains precarious following the delayed onset of the 2005 short rains (October - December) season. In normal years, the short rains provide water and pasture in these areas at a critical time, thus breaking the dry season before the main March - May rains. The water and pasture provided by the short rains help pastoral and agro-pastoral households through the long dry period between January and March each year. When the rains fail, livestock are unable to recover and endure the long dry season. This year's short rains season is particularly important because it comes on the heels of successive rainfall failures in the recent past, which have adversely affected the food security situation among the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in GHA countries.
Figure 1: Onset of October-December Rains (20 November 2005)
Source: USGS / FEWS NET Source: USGS / FEWS NET
Figure 2: Rangeland conditions (20 November 2005)
Source: USGS / FEWS NET Source: USGS / FEWS NET
Climatologically, November is normally the rainfall peak for the short rains. This year, the rainfall performance in the region has generally been below normal for pastoral and agropastoral areas. Key agricultural areas of southern Somalia and agro-pastoral areas of southern Ethiopia and parts of southeastern Sudan experienced major delays of more than a month in the onset of the short-rains (shown in dark red in Figure 1). The marginal agricultural areas of southeastern Kenya were less affected, though they have already experienced a 10-20 day delay in the start of the season. In addition, key pastoral areas in southern Ethiopia, central Somalia and northern Kenya have also seen significant delays in the start of the season (see pink areas in Figure 2).
In Somalia, the food security situation is rapidly deteriorating in many parts of the south especially in the agropastoral and pastoral areas of Gedo and Juba regions. The Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU/FAO) has issued a warning of a high risk of an acute food and livelihood crisis within the coming two months in these two regions if the dismal rainfall performance of current Deyr continues. Cattle deaths have been reported in the hinterland of Gedo and Juba regions, due to the lack of pasture and water. Rangeland resources were depleted early in the traditional grazing areas due to the below normal Gu 2005 (April-June) rains, which forced an early and unusual movement of people and livestock towards the Juba River and coastal areas of Kismayo. Livestock body condition is weak affecting milk production and livestock prices. Cattle prices in Gedo and Juba Valley regions are significantly lower than normal. For the last seven months, cattle prices have decreased by 46% in Bardera (Gedo) and 50% in Afmandow (Lower Juba), seriously affecting the terms of trade between livestock sales and purchases of cereals.
In Ethiopia, this year's October - December rains are critical in providing relief following successive failed rainfall seasons in southern Ethiopia and especially in the Somali Region, where over 500,000 people are currently receiving food aid following successive rainfall season failures. Poor rains this season would result in a deterioration and continuation of extreme food insecurity in the region.
In Kenya, rains during the last week of October over parts of northern and southeastern districts of Kenya are likely to provide some relief to livestock in these areas. However, the delayed onset of the rains, coupled with the erratic nature of the current rainfall season in the country, makes it difficult at this stage to determine their impact on crops in the marginal agricultural areas of southeastern and coastal districts of Kenya, where high levels of food insecurity are currently present following successive bad seasons. Good rainfall performance during the remainder of November will be critical for these districts because they heavily rely on the short-rains.
In Djibouti, unfavorable October - December rains are likely to result in an increase in the number of food insecure pastoralists in country. Currently, there are over 150,000 people who are food insecure, with almost 60 percent of them receiving food aid. However, neighboring Somaliland (Somalia) and northeastern Ethiopia had a better June - September season. These areas are expected to provide a steady flow of food and livestock, maintaining favorable market prices, thus ameliorating the impact of poor October - December rains
While some weather forecasts indicate intensified rainfall during the last week of November, especially in Kenya, which would provide relief to affected areas, it is unlikely that sufficient rain will fall to mitigate the impact of the poor rains so far in the most affected areas in the region. Moreover, recent regional climate forecasts for November through December do not augur well as they show an increased likelihood for normal to below rainfall performance. Even with additional rains, although pasture and water conditions and consequently livestock and food security conditions may temporarily improve, food security conditions are likely to deteriorate during the long dry season between January and March, a period which will be critical for providing humanitarian assistance to the vulnerable communities.
National and regional stakeholders should monitor the progress of this season carefully and prepare for potential crisis conditions during the long January to March dry season in these areas.
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