FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Maize East Africa 30 Jan 2009

In the southeastern part (Kajiado) of Rift Valley the growing season until now has been very unfavorable and dry. Maize yields could be at least 15% to 20% lower than average and considerably lower than last year due to drought. A large area of Kajiado has been dry with possible yield decreases of about -15%. Exception is the most southwestern part of Kajiado in the bimodal growing areas, near the border to Tanzania where situation is better compared to the 5 years historical average (+5%), but lower than last year (-10%). In Narok and Nakuru on the average the season was quite dry (-5%) but local differences are seen.

In all other maize bimodal growing areas of Rift Valley the season has been good to very good. In Baringo the water availability was higher than last year and a 20% yield increase compared to the 5 years historical average is possible. Also to the north in West Pokot and Matheniko the water availability for the crops up to now was about 20% to 25% higher than the 5 years historical average, and about the same as last year with local differences. In Laikipia and Samburu the crop growing conditions have been good and slightly above the 5 years average, but in some parts lower than last year.

In other bimodal maize growing areas of Kenya, dry conditions are seen. In Eastern Province, maize yield decreases of about -15% to -20% are expected due to drought. The situation is similar in most parts of Central Province and Coast Province, except for Kwale with slightly below average to normal water availability. Moderate drought is also seen in parts of Nyanza but there are considerable local differences.

In Uganda good and above average yield prospects are seen in most part of the country except for the southwestern areas near Lake Edward (Bushenyi and Kasese, Mbarara). In Somalia the season has been very dry up to now. Yield decreases of at least -20% are expected in Bakool, Bay and Shabelle.