Kenya + 7 more

FAST Crop Yield Forecast: Maize East Africa 13 Aug 2008



Kenya and Eritrea face considerably reduced yields of respectively -11% and -6% relative to the 5 yr average. In Sudan the central east-west zone is affected, including Darfur. In the regions south of Lake Victoria, yield decreases are expected in the east of Burundi (-10%) and the north of Tanzania (-15%). Normal yields are predicted for Rwanda and south Uganda. Low yields in the north of Tanzania are compensated by high yields in the centre of the country, and therefore at national level maize outputs are slightly above average (2.5%). In Rwanda a moderate increase of +3% is foreseen. In the maize growing areas of Somalia crop water availability during the growing season was somewhat better than in previous year and a maize yield of 3 % above last years yield seems possible. Yields expectations are somewhat above average in Ethiopia (+1.1%) but lower than the previous year and there are considerable differences between the west and the east of the country


In Kenya drastically reduced maize outputs (-20%) and a decrease of yield in large parts of the agricultural areas in the country is anticipated due to drought. The largest decreases are seen in the south of the Rift Valley province. However, local differences exist in the Rift Valley province with small areas showing normal to good conditions in some parts of the centre and at the border with Karamoyo province of Uganda. In Uganda, water availability is good in northern parts and regions at the border with Sudan but below average in the south at the borders with Lake Victoria. In Tanzania, water availability and crop prospects are better than normal in the central part of the country while in the northern part and the southern part yield decreases are expected. In Dodoma, Rukwa, north Mbeya, south Tabora, south Singida, south Arusha and south-east Shinyanga well above average yields (15%) are seen. In the north, large parts of provinces like Arusha, Mara, Mwanza, Kigoma suffered from drought and below average productions (-10%) are foreseen.

In western regions of Ethiopia, the water availability for the crops was very good and exceptionally high yields of 17% to 20% are expected in provinces like Welega and Illubabor in Amhara and Gambela regions. By contrast, other regions in the east and south of Ethiopia like Afar, Somali and Oromiy suffer from water shortages and show considerable local differences, with yield decreases of -10% in Welo, Tigray and in parts of Gonder. Central Sudan is suffering from drought with large yield reductions of about -20% in parts of Darfur and Kordofan. The conditions are better in southern parts of the country where normal outputs are expected but local differences are seen. In Bahr el Ghazal some areas in the centre and the south of the province show increased production, while in other parts normal or below average productions are foreseen.

In Somalia, the growing areas in general show higher than average yields with positive deviations from the 5-years average of about 4% in Shabelle, Bakool and Hiran. Lower yields are foreseen in Galbeed and Jubbada Hoose (-10% and -1%). In general, the yield prospects in Somalia are better than the previous years. In non-cropland areas of northern parts of Somalia and provinces like Nugaal and Saraag water availability for the vegetation is below average.


The maps on next page show the Meteosat derived difference yield (DY) relative to the 5 yr average (figure 2a) and to the previous year (figure 2b). The actual growing areas, as defined by FAO, are shown in figure 3a and b.