Food security to deteriorate following below-average March to May long rains
Generally, the below-average long rains resulted in belowaverage crop development in the high- and mediumpotential areas in western Kenya and the Rift Valley. A belowaverage, long rains harvest is expected. Staple food prices are expected to remain unusually elevated through December.
These areas will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as sufficient income from crop sales and labor will still be available.
In the southeastern, marginal, agricultural areas, food consumption will decrease through September. Households have limited income this year, and they need to purchase now while prices have remained high. The majority of households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) but a few areas are likely to enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between now and September at the height of the lean season.
In pastoral and agropastoral areas, rangeland conditions did not fully recover during the March to May long rains. Pasture, browse, and water are being depleted faster than usual, and the lean season is likely to start earlier than normal in July instead of August. Many households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September while others likely will enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, with the start of the short rains in October, many of these areas are likely to improve again to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).