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East Africa Assumptions for Quarterly Food Security Analysis - April 2015

Situation Report
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To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET uses scenario development. In this methodology, an analyst uses current evidence to develop assumptions about the future and compare their possible effects. The following report outlines assumptions at the regional level. Assumptions are also developed at the country level; these are likely to be more detailed. Together, the regional and national assumptions are the foundation for the integrated analysis reported in FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates. Learn more about our work here.

FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for April to September 2015 are based on the following regional assumptions:

Seasonal Performance

The February-to-May Belg rains in the northeastern highlands, central and eastern Oromia, and SNNPR in Ethiopia are expected to be near average in terms of cumulative rainfall and to start late. More frequent and longer dry spells are expected during the season.

In Tanzania, the March-to-May Msimu rains are expected to be near average to below average in the unimodal southern, eastern, and central parts of country and to end normally between May and June.
The March-to-May rains in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda and northwestern Tanzania are likely to be near average in terms of cumulative rainfall with a near normal timing of their start (Figure 1).

The March-to-May rains in the eastern Horn of Africa are likely to be near average to below average in terms of cumulative rainfall, especially over eastern Kenya and southern Somalia, and will also have a late start and erratic distribution (Figure 1).

In Yemen, the March-to-November rains will have near average cumulative rainfall in both unimodal and bimodal areas with a normally timed start. The peak of rainfall will be between June and September.

The start of the June-to-September rains over Sudan, South Sudan, and western Ethiopia is likely to be normally timed with average to below average amounts of rain.
The June-to-September Karan/Karma rains over Djibouti, Afar and northern Somali Region in Ethiopia, and northwestern Somalia are likely to have a normally timed start and have average to below average amounts of rain.